7/18/24

For the first time since 2003, the Seattle Mariners sit in first place in the American League West at the All-Star Break. Normally, that would have the Pacific Northwest fired up and excited for the second half push in which the Mariners could reach the playoffs for just the second time since 2002. However, just back on June 18th, the M’s held a 10-game lead in the division. That lead now sits at just one over the Houston Astros with 64 games left in the 2024 season. The question quickly transitioned from “Can the Mariners make their first World Series appearance ever?” to “Can the Mariners hang on to a playoff spot?”

There are so many layers to go through when looking ahead to the second half of the season and the race for the AL West. There are things that the Mariners can control and change. But there are also some things that will have to break their way that they don’t control, like what both Houston and Texas do. With so much to go through let’s dive in.

The Good

Starting pitching continues to be the backbone of the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners rank third in all of baseball and are atop the American League in team ERA with a team ERA of 3.46. They have the third most shutouts in baseball with 10 all while having the most innings pitched by their starting rotation. You can really go on and on with the pitching. They have the fewest walks, lowest WHIP, lowest average against and so on. The point is, the Mariners pitching is really good.

Leading the charge in the first half, Logan Gilbert dominated his way to his first ever All-Star selection. Leading all of baseball in starts and innings, the tall right hander took another step from last season where his flashes of brilliance came and went with some inconsistencies. In 2024, those inconsistencies are a thing of the past. With an MLB leading 16 quality starts, Gilbert continues to become “Win day” for the Mariners as every time he takes the mound, the M’s have a strong chance of winning. His new splitter that he took from George Kirby, looks to be a lethal weapon despite it being new to his repertoire. If he can match his first half success in the second half, Logan Gilbert will be in the thick of the AL Cy Young race.

Speaking of George Kirby, he and Luis Castillo put together phenomenal first halves as well. With some of the best control in this leagues history, George Kirby won’t ever hurt himself with walks. The top two pitchers in strikeout-to-walk ratios are Kirby with an 8.9 and Tampa Bay’s Zach Eflin with an 8.7 in 18 fewer innings than Kirby. Third place right now is Tarik Skubal…with a 6.7. With only 54 career walks in 438 1/3 innings, Kirby owns a career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.8. As absurd as that number is, it continues to just rise for Kirby. If he can get back to what we saw last season, the Gilbert-Kirby duo can be one of the best duos in all of baseball.

If that isn’t enough, the Mariners also still have Luis Castillo at their disposal. While his 3.53 ERA is a little eye opening, there is no cause for concern about what La Piedra can still do. In his eight-year career, Castillo has been known to be a second half pitcher. After another rough April, Castillo settled things down over the next couple of months. August is also historically a tricky month for La Piedra, but the Mariners play most of their games at home in August. In his career, Luis Castillo has an ERA of just 2.79 at T-Mobile Park in 33 career starts. The seasoned veteran knows how to get the job done on a big stage and is the perfect veteran to lead this young rotation.

Finally, the newest faces to the rotation in Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have taken a tremendous step forward in their sophomore seasons. For Woo, injuries continue to plague him in his second year in the Mariners rotation. After missing all of April, Woo pitched extremely well in May and into June before a hamstring issue sidelined him in Tampa Bay. Bryce Miller started the season off looking like the best pitcher in the Mariners rotation but has cooled down after that. Still, his 3.63 ERA is one of the best ERAs of any #4 starter in the sport. The only concern is his inning count. Miller threw 131 1/3 innings last season and currently has 109 innings under his belt in 2024.

While there are issues in the bridging from the rotation to Andrés Muñoz, the Mariner closer showcased his talents in his All-Star first half of the season. Converting 15 of his 17 save opportunities, Muñoz looked much more comfortable in the first half of the season as the Mariner closer than he did in the second half last season. The WHIP is also down to 1.04, but the walks are also a little bit of an issue. However, most of those walks are left on base as Muñoz’s 1.41 ERA would be a career best for the young Mexico born closer.

The Bad

Offense. Where to even begin when talking about the 2024 offense of the Seattle Mariners. Seattle’s .219 team batting average is on pace to be the 20th lowest by team in the history of MLB. That number becomes even more absurd with the fact that despite it, the Mariners still sit in first place in their division. Outside of the Chicago White Sox who are hitting .220, no other team is close to being below the Mariners. That .219 average is actually up thanks to a better week in San Diego. Only one other team currently occupying a playoff spot is hitting below the league average and that would be the Atlanta Braves who are currently hitting .241.

Then the strikeout rate makes everything worse. The Oakland A’s have struck out 949 times this season. The Mariners are the only team to strikeout more with 1,013 strikeouts so far. That is over 300 more strikeouts than hits. If a team has a high slugging percentage, then a high strikeout rate is acceptable. However, Seattle’s current slugging percentage of .367 is the third lowest in all of baseball.

With runners on base, Seattle is actually a little bit better believe it or not, but most of that is because of success in those situations in May. No team has hit fewer sacrifice flies than the Mariners 15. That is because, they are striking out with runners in scoring position. On balls put in play with runners in scoring position, the Mariners are actually hitting .301. That is the 12th best in the league which means if they can stop striking out and just get the ball in play, good things happen.

With all that, the area that needs addressed at the deadline is blatantly obvious. The Mariners need more guys to put the ball in play or get more extra base hits. It really can be that simple sometimes. Now, it will be a weird deadline this season with so many teams still in contention. The entire league is surrounded by a heavy fog on what anyone will do. Do not expect anything to start happening until next week. But do expect that when the first domino falls, the Mariners will be right there in the thick of things with Trader Jerry ready to wheel and deal.

Top 5 Trade Deadline Targets

1. Luis Robert Jr., OF, Chicago White Sox- Perhaps the biggest fish in the pond when it comes to the 2024 Trade Deadline. Robert Jr. is under club control through the 2027 season which raises the cost for what it will take to land him. The dynamic outfielder would likely slot in a corner outfield spot and makes the outfield defense even better for the Mariners. Injuries have cost the Cuban star a lot of playing time, but his power and potential make him a potential future MVP in the league. He does strikeout a lot which would not help the Mariners problem in that area, but there is a lot more upside to him than a Mitch Haniger currently provides the lineup.
2. Tanner Scott, LHP, Miami Marlins- With Matt Brash missing the entire season and Gregory Santos just returning from the IL, the Mariners leave quite a bit to be desired in their bullpen. Adding another high caliber reliever is a must and adding a lefty would be icing on the cake. Enter Tanner Scott. The All-Star is in the midst of a career season, boasting a 1.34 ERA in 40 1/3 innings. 25 walks to just 45 strikeouts is not ideal, but we have seen countless times relievers come to Seattle and enjoy newfound success with fewer walks. Scott would not cost as much as a Mason Miller and would provide another critical situation arm to go along with Santos and Ryne Stanek to build the bridge to Andrés Muñoz.
3. Jazz Chisholm Jr., INF/OF, Miami Marlins- Seattle could try to build a package to get both Scott and Jazz Chisholm Jr. The versatile Chisholm can play both in the outfield and at second base. Now the M’s will likely give Jorge Polanco a chance to keep his spot up until the week of the deadline, but if things don’t workout we could see Polanco go to Miami in a deal. Jazz is not a high average guy but does provide plenty of pop and his slugging percentage for this season does not really reflect that. It seems like Chisholm is the type of player that needs a change of scenery and the electric utility man would fit right in with the Mariners.
4. Brent Rooker, OF/DH, Oakland Athletics- First off, Mason Miller will probably not get traded this season. If Seattle can package anyone with Brent Rooker, it would likely be JJ Bleday. However, Rooker is what the Mariners wanted Mitch Garver to be. Sure, he strikes out a lot. But so does Mitch Garver and Brent Rooker has more upside to him. Mitch Garver currently has a slugging percentage of .356 with 96 strikeouts. Brent Rooker’s slugging percentage is .573 with 112 strikeouts. 16 more strikeouts but 16 more extra base hits makes Rooker a clear upgrade to Seattle’s lineup.
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays- To be clear, this trade most likely doesn’t happen. This would be the dream trade for the Mariners but the Blue Jays aren’t out of it and Vlad is under control through the end of next season. However, the Mariners boast a top 2 farm system in all of baseball. If any team can convince the Jays to deal their star, it is the Mariners. Vlad would take over for Ty France at first base but can also play third which would be less necessary with Josh Rojas playing exceptional defense this season. Now if this trade does happen, it will take a lot. It would also make the Mariners a legit World Series contender both this season and next. That makes Vlad worth any price the M’s would have to pay.

Remaining Schedule

With MLB going to a balanced schedule and every team playing every team, the overall schedule is more balanced than ever. Teams still play their own division more which can benefit those teams in bad divisions like the NL Central or hurt teams in good divisions like the AL East. In the AL West there is more balance with the Mariners, Astros, and Rangers all being considered difficult opponents while the Angels and A’s are…not.

This is where the Mariners and Rangers actually have the edge over the Astros. Texas’ remaining schedule ranks as the fourth easiest remaining schedule while the Mariners sit just behind them with the fifth easiest remaining schedule. Both of their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .486. Houston sits about in the middle of baseball with the 16th toughest schedule remaining, but that is quite the step from Seattle and Texas. Their remaining schedule sits at a .501 winning percentage. The Mariners play Houston six more times and Texas seven while the Astros and Rangers will play each other three more times.

Of course just because a schedule is easy doesn’t mean it results in wins. The same can be said about difficult opponents not resulting in losses. To this point in the season, The Mariners have the best record in the AL West against opponents over .500 while the Astros hold the best record against teams below .500. The Mariners have 26 wins each against opponents with winning records and losing records. Houston beats up on the bad teams with a 34-21 record against losing teams but sit 16-25 against winning teams.

The biggest key in looking at schedules is what teams have done against their own division. Seattle and Houston are the only two teams in the AL West with a winning record against their own division. There is still quite the gap between the two as the M’s are 18-8 against AL West foes while the Astros are 16-14. Seattle also currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker against both Houston and Texas. The Mariners are 5-2 against Houston this season and 5-1 against Texas.

Piecing together all the scheduling info and numbers, the Mariners do have the slight edge. Momentum is a whole other element to throw in there as well as that momentum belongs to the Astros. A quick reset could boost the M’s back up and really give them the inside track down the stretch.

Key Series

• July 19th-21st- 3 Games vs. Houston Astros
• July 29th-31st- 3 Games @ Boston Red Sox
• September 12th-15th- 4 Games vs. Texas Rangers
• September 17th-19th- 3 Games vs. New York Yankees
• September 20th-22nd- 3 Games @ Texas Rangers
• September 23rd-25th- 3 Games @ Houston Astros

What’s Next

Right out of the All-Star Break, the Mariners will jump into the deep end with a pivotal three-game series at home with the Houston Astros starting tonight at 7:10pm. After limping into the break with three consecutive losses against the Los Angeles Angels, the M’s will have to flush that frustration and dial in on a team they have had a lot of success against since the two teams met in the 2022 ALDS. Since the start of 2023, the Mariners are 14-6 against the big bad Astros. However, momentum currently belongs to Houston who are 17-6 since June 19th while the Mariners are 8-15 over the same stretch.

The name that still haunts Mariner fans has found his groove in a big way since the start of June. Yordan Alvarez really struggled out of the gates this season but the terrifying power combined with elite contact skills could only stay down for so long. Since the beginning of June, Alvarez is hitting .339 with 10 homers and 30 runs driven in. After striking out 17 times in April and 24 times in May, Alvarez cut down that number as well, striking out only 17 times since the start of June. Despite hitting .333 against the M’s this season, a lot of that contact has been soft and no damage has been done by Yordan against the Mariners. Without a home run or RBI against Seattle this season, expect Yordan to try to make up for lost time in what will be a playoff like atmosphere in Seattle this weekend.

• Game 1, Friday 7:10pm- Hunter Brown (7-6, 4.39 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (8-9, 3.53 ERA)
• Game 2, Saturday 6:40pm- Framber Valdez (8-5, 3.66 ERA) vs. George Kirby (7-7, 3.29 ERA)
• Game 3, Sunday 1:10pm- Ronel Blanco (9-4, 2.56 ERA) vs. Bryan Woo (3-1, 2.45 ERA)

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