4/28/2023

Levy Elections Updated

No changes in any of the votes yet. Good news first both Asotin and Washougal school districts continued to pass, Washougal handily and there does not appear to be enough ballots left to count that could change the outcome. One of our Gray area districts was Orting and their prop 1 issue is passing and also does not appear to have enough ballots left to count to change the outcome. A lot of really late ballots would all have to be no to impact either Asotin or Orting and it’s just not going to happen so those 3 districts are in great shape.

Now the bad news. There were 2 districts that were failing and they remain on the wrong end of the numbers. Centralia was losing their levy by 193 votes and in the 2nd count they made up significant ground chipping away 114 votes to now needing a +80 yes count on the final count to pull off a win. Unfortunately there were only 54 ballots left to count. Those ballots were counted on Friday at noon and with no ballots left to be counted the final tally was 2,734 no to 2,658 yes a difference of 76 votes. The election will be certified on May 5th so any valid ballots coming in between now and certification day will be counted but there won’t be 77 or more ballots as this levy fails again in Centralia. 

The other district that was behind was Woodland who trailed by 37 votes on election day. After the 2nd counts in Cowlitz and Clark counties surprisingly they only gained 3 votes and now trail by 34 and actually need 35 to pass. This is a surprisingly low flip number. Since Washington state went to an all mail-in ballot system the late arriving votes tend to be more liberal and favorable to issues like levies, so to gain only 3 votes is frustrating for Woodland levy supporters to be certain.

However, there is much better news for Woodland supporters over Centralia supporters and that is there is still 150 ballots or more to count in Cowlitz county where the levy is the only issue on the ballot so all 150 votes are in play. Then there is an additional 80 ballots still to be counted in Clark county but that also includes 2 other elections for the Washougal district so it is unknown how many of the 80 remaining ballots are for Woodland. But any would be good as the Clark county voters are voting so far 266-233 in favor of the levy so any positive votes with it this tight are important.

The 2nd count was a total of 559 ballots and yet only 3 votes flipped so even though there are still more than 150 ballots to be counted the trend is not favoring levy supporters. Looking to the bright side though it won’t take a huge shift in the count out of the 150 left in Cowlitz it would have to be an 88-52 count. There could still be some valid ballots arriving prior to the final count and whatever you can get out of Clark county still gives Woodland a fighting chance. The next count in Cowlitz county  is set for 4/28, Friday afternoon and and on May 4th in Clark county both elections will be certified on May 5th.

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4/26/2023

Tuesday, the 25th was election day for 5 school districts with levy issues on the ballot. 2 other district had multi-million dollar bond issues to be decided. Let’s explain the difference between a school levy and a school bond issue. Levies pay for things that are not funded by the state and are much smaller in scope to a bond. Levies pay for equipment in the classrooms, additional personnel, sports, activities and minor maintenance. These dollars are limited to no more than 24% of a district’s budget. A district needs a simple majority to pass levies.

A bond issue is for building new facilities or remodeling existing infrastructure. Bonds are multi-million dollar asks for big projects and can be financed over a longer period of time much like a home mortage. Bond money CANNOT be used to pay for teachers, books, activities etc and must be used only for the expressed purpose in a bond proposal. Because there is a much larger commitment districts must get a 60% supermajority to pass bond issues.

Let’s begin with the bond issues, South Whidbey was running an 80-million issue and received 56.5% yes vote with 43.5% no. This looks good on paper but remember bond issues need 60% and this is far short of passing in the world of elections. Kent schools was running a 345-million dollar bond but is not even close to passing with 45.8% approving and 54.2% against so neither bond will pass in this election.

5 Districts ran levy elections and 2 are passing with what looks like enough to stand-up with additional ballots still to be counted. Remember in Washington State all elections are mail-in ballots and they must be postmarked by election day so ballots that were mailed and postmarked yesterday have not arrived at county election offices yet to be tabulated. But as a matter of course, an election rarely will flip with one side leading by 2% or more. The election has to be really close for a chance for the leading vote getter to fall behind after the initial count on election day.

This is good news for the Washougal and Asotin school districts. Washougal’s vote current vote count is 2,857 yes to 2,136 no for a massive 57%-43% lead. Asotin is also in a strong position with 2,814 yes to 2,694 no for 51%-49% lead. It would be a surprise to see either district lose this election.

Two districts are in the gray area with Orting in the better position over Woodland. Orting is passing right now with 2,091 yes votes to 1,949 for about 1.5% lead. There would have to be a huge no vote come in late to turn the tables for Orting but still want to see the next count round to breathe a sigh of relief. We believe this levy will pass.

The other gray area district is Woodland who is currently losing their levy by just 38 votes. Right now the count is 1634 yes votes to 1671 no votes. The next round of counting will be huge for Woodland they will likely need to pull ahead in the voting to survive the final round which will be just a few votes of late arriving ballots.

In Centralia the news is gloomy as their measure is failing 2,485 to 2,292 nearly 200 votes or 52% no to 48% yes. Based on many former elections the chance this passes is less than 1% and would be a stunning reversal with nearly every late coming ballot needing to be in the affirmative.

So what will happen if the levy fails in Woodland and Centralia? In Woodland we are told that if the levy fails they would have to cut all middle school sports, C-Team sports, cut transportation and the Athletic Director’s job will go to part time. Current AD Paul Huddleston says he would go back teaching half days and continue as the AD. He remains hopeful the late arriving ballots will get them across the finish line and until Thursday’s 2nd count everyone is holding their breathe hoping for the best. If they get the votes to pass the levy then everything will remain the same.

In Centralia there will simply be big cuts. Centralia unfortunately is getting used to dealing with double levy failures. They lost a double levy in 2020 and was looking at severe cuts to their athletics. Then athletic director Scott Chamberlain (now Shelton’s AD) was able to get a commitment from enough coaches to volunteer and coach for no pay to keep at least the varsity sports. 

The believe it or not one of the few positives of the pandemic and the school shut down was that it helped Centralia by giving them time to put another levy run together. In the Spring of March 2020 is when the schools were shut down and so the district decided to try and pass a levy in August of 2020. That effort failed by 69 votes and was their 3rd levy loss in a row. 

So the district went into the 20-21 school year with no levy dollars but kids were not allowed back in schools until late January and then sports were allowed to resume in February of 2021. The WIAA played a shortened season with a focus on each league simply playing their schedules there were no state play-offs. Centralia was being led by all volunteer coaching staffs. Meantime, the district ran another levy in April of 2021 and passed which restored funding through the 2022-23 school year. 

Now disaster has struck again with another double levy failure. This will again result in deep cuts. ESN talked with sources who did not want to be identified at this time until the election is official and the school board determines the cuts. But the hope was to save varsity sports only. Likely being cut from sports is all middle school sports, C-team and JV teams at the High School and transportation. Coaching staffs will likely not be volunteer but each sport will likely have no more than 1 or 2 paid positions. The exact status of current AD Tim Ahern is unknown but have been told since he has other duties outside of athletics it will be unlikely he is laid off.

Further cuts at both Centralia and Woodland could come in other elective courses such as music, band, shop classes or any elective courses and with that additional personnel. School board members will be asked to look for any cuts that will hurt the least which we were told of course is an impossible task. 

From a sports perspective next year for the Centralia Tigers it will be a very gloomy year. Woodland still has hope of pulling out a win to avoid all this heartache, it will be a miracle for Centralia to somehow come out with good news.

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