It is finally here. The Seattle Mariners are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2001. While just getting there makes this season a success, the team is capable of putting together a run and potentially become the first team in club history to make the World Series. To do that, the Mariners will take on the other team that joined the league in 1977 in the Toronto Blue Jays. In this article, we are going to breakdown this series and take a look back at how these teams have fared against one another and look forward to the thrilling pitching matchups.

Season Series

Since the pandemic shortened season, the Mariners have actually had a lot of success against the Toronto Blue Jays. In 2021, the Mariners went 4-2 against Toronto which was helped by the fact they never had to go to Toronto. The Blue Jays had to play their home games in Buffalo, NY for most of the year due to travel restrictions in Canada. This season, the Mariners continued that success by going 5-2 against the Jays but the majority of that damage was done when the Mariners swept a four-game series in Seattle. In Toronto, the Blue Jays took two out of three but that was before the acquisition of Luis Castillo. Of course the atmosphere will be much different now in the postseason.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1- Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99 ERA) vs. Alek Manoah (16-7, 2.24 ERA)

Luis Castillo was acquired by the Mariners at the trade deadline. He did however face the Blue Jays when he was with Cincinnati. In that outing, Castillo went six innings and gave up seven hits but just two runs allowed with no walks and five strikeouts in Toronto. Manoah also faced Seattle this season and went 7.1 innings while only allowing three hits but also two runs on two walks and seven strikeouts. Both pitchers pitched well in those previous meetings but neither of them saw their team get a win. Castillo had a bumpy end of the season while September was arguably the best month for Manoah. Manoah will make his first postseason appearance while Castillo has one playoff start under his belt. Back in 2020 with the Reds, Castillo pitched 5.1 innings of one run ball against Atlanta despite getting the loss.

Game 2- Robbie Ray (12-12, 3.71 ERA) vs. Probable- Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.35 ERA)

While Toronto hasn’t locked in their starter for game two, it is likely going to be veteran Kevin Gausman taking the mound against opposing veteran Robbie Ray. The storyline of this one would be Robbie Ray returning Toronto after winning the Cy Young with the Blue Jays in 2021. After signing a big contract with the Mariners in the offseason, Ray has found mixed results in the Pacific Northwest. Ray saw his numbers inflate a little bit but the ERA was the only big change. The lefty did face his former team in July when he pitched sixed innings of three hit and one run ball while walking two and striking out six in route to a no-decision. This will be Ray’s fourth postseason appearance but just his second start. The southpaw has found more success coming out of the bullpen in his two outings but will look to find success getting the start this time around. Gausman saw an uptick in hits in his first year in Toronto but also decreased his walks which makes it likely he’d give up more hits. Gausman has been solid but seems to have one outing a month where he struggles. He faced the Mariners in Toronto this season and just went five innings while allowing seven hits but just two runs with a walk and three strikeouts. This will be Kevin Gausman’s second postseason start as well but his seventh appearance. His only start was against the Dodgers last season where he lost by giving up four runs in 5.1 innings.

Game 3- Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) vs. Probable- Ross Stripling (10-4, 3.01 ERA)

Two guys who fly under the radar compared to the other starters in this series would likely meet in game three if necessary. Logan Gilbert is coming off of a breakout sophomore season that saw him take huge strides. After some summer struggles, Gilbert has settled back in with a great month of September including eight dominant innings in his last outing which saw the Mariners end their playoff drought. Gilbert faced Toronto in twice this season but had mixed results. In total, Gilbert went 13 innings allowing 15 hits and seven runs with just two walks but 16 strikeouts. Seattle went 1-1 in those two games. Ross Stripling had the misfortune of being traded by the Dodgers to Toronto in 2020 before the Dodgers won the World Series that fall. Now, Stripling has made himself quite comfortable in the Great White North. Stripling is coming off the best season of his career but only threw 134.1 innings. Stripling had three appearances against the M’s in the regular season with two of them coming out of the bullpen. He went 7.1 innings in those outings and allowed nine hits and four runs with three walks and nine strikeouts.

Projected Lineups

Mariners

1. CF- Julio Rodriguez
2. 1B- Ty France
3. RF- Mitch Haniger
4. 3B- Eugenio Suarez
5. DH- Carlos Santana
6. C- Cal Raleigh
7. 2B- Adam Frazier
8. LF- Jarred Kelenic
9. SS- J.P. Crawford

Blue Jays

1. CF- George Springer
2. SS- Bo Bichette
3. 1B- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
4. RF- Teoscar Hernandez
5. C- Alejandro Kirk
6. 3B- Matt Chapman
7. LF- Raimel Tapia
8. DH- Whit Merrifield
9. 2B- Santiago Espinal

X-Factors

1. Rogers Centre- Home field advantage is always going to be an X-Factor in any game. It is even more so in the Rogers Centre where the Blue Jays have had many iconic moments. Whether it be Joe Carter’s home run to win the 1993 World Series or the bat flip heard around the world on Jose Bautista’s go-ahead home run in game 5 of the 2015 ALDS. The crowd is always insane and the Mariners need to be prepared for that environment. Also, if the roof is closed that could be an issue along with the turf. The ball bounces differently on that turf and the roof makes it much harder to see the ball with the roof closed. These are all small things that can be overlooked that could swing a run or two against or for one team. Seattle needs to remember that.
2. Weaknesses- These two teams have obvious weaknesses. For the Mariners, the offense has to find a groove. The rotation has carried them over the last couple of months but it is time for the offense to step up. If they can muster five runs per game, you have to like the M’s chances. The Toronto weakness is the bullpen. They have had issues all season with holding a late lead but it has been every part of the bullpen besides closer Jordan Romano. Toronto needs to get a bigger lead late in these games especially with Seattle notorious for late inning comebacks. If the Mariners can keep it close late, that will benefit them against a weaker bullpen.
3. Superstars- There is so much talent on both teams. George Springer, Bo Bichette, Eugenio Suarez, and Mitch Haniger are just some of those guys. But the superstars are clearly Julio Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. These guys are capable of carrying both of their teams to lengthy runs in the playoffs. Rodriguez will win the AL Rookie of the Year while Vlad is one of the best hitters in all of baseball. If either of these guys get hot or fall into a slump, that could be the difference in the series.

Schedule

Game 1, Friday, October 12th at 1:07pm

Game 2, Saturday, October 13th at 1:07pm

Game 3 (If Necessary) Sunday, October 14th at 11:07am

Winner advances to play Houston

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