Emerald Downs: Larry’s Lucky Picks Week 19 Final Week!

paulb

10/29/2020

(Katlama, WA) My Final Numbers! Remember I only bet in “pretend” dollars and pretty much stick to the minimums in reality.

Larry the SportsCat

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $185,270

Amount Collected: $228,054
Balance: +$42,784

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
355 Top Picks: 83 win, 64 place, 51 shows, 35 4th (23% win; 58% in the money; 66% in Superfecta)
358 2nd Picks: 66 win, 51 place, 67 show, 45 4th (18% win, 51% in the money, 64% in Superfecta)
354 3rd Picks: 57 win, 64 place, 53 show, 40 4th (16% win, 49% in the money, 60% in Superfecta)
Top 3 Win: 58%

DAY 38 (Thursday)

Race 1
2 Oh Marvelous Me 5-2 (Winner!)
I love this horse and even though Papa’s Golden Boy will go to the lead he might find some company in Windribbon and if a dual evolves then that sets up Marv rolling late.

1 Papa’s Golden Boy 8-5  (off the board)
If this was longer than 6 furlongs I’d say there is a good chance he loses steam late in the race but this is in his wheel house and will likely be on the lead. He will need to be caught but it looks like Windribbon can be closer than most early and just might bother Papa, this is a more interesting race than at first glance.

5 Makah Lane 6-1 (4th place)
Another who needs a speed dual to make an impact but if one develops this guy may stun them all.

Race 2
4 Bearcreek Mountain 7-2 (3rd place)
Bear broke his Maiden with Alex Cruz going to the lead and this race is begging for early speed and Cruz gets back on. Look for a quick break and right to the front.

2 Wilson to Lockett 5-2 (4th place)
A closer and had been coming from far back but in last Mawing got him out closer and easily ran past the field for the win. Mawing is back trying for back to back wins.

5 Aero Street 9-2 (2nd place)
Have a gut feeling on this guy. A pretty even running line in last 3 races a return to form to 4 races bac puts him right there.

Race 3
5 Fortune in Silk 6-1 (2nd place)
Javier Matias had his choice and takes off Shelby R. who he had ridden all 6 starts this season and takes the ride here on Silk. He hasn’t ridden Silk since last year. I find it curious and will believe Javier knows best. Look for a price here.

7 Abraa Jabraa 5-1 (Winner!)
I had A-J in last and she ran a well beaten 2nd but this one has been very consistent this season with a 1-2-0 from 4 starts record a must include.

1 Whata Flirt 6-1 (3rd place)
Coming off a win at the 2500 level and jumps up to 8k. Huge jump but Leslie Mawing was also on 3-1 Golden Delight and won last out but jumps ship to stick with Flirt. Strange race I am either going to nail it or go 0-3.

Race 4
1 Bromance 20-1 (off the board)
Yes a 20-1 shot is my pick but Bromance is only out for his 2nd start in lone start finished 7th of 9 but closed a few lengths and not as bad a run as it looks. A SJC to C-Fig also make this one a lot more attractive in a race where literally any of them could win.

4 If I Had A Nickel 4-1 (3rd place)
This one finished in front of my top pick by just 3 lengths with a 4th place finish. Cruz sticks for the run back.

6 Genoa Bay 5-2 (Winner!)
The M-L fav but coming off a solid 2nd place running.

Race 5
3 Sheza Delight 8-1 (off the board)
Shipped in from Wyoming and ran a respectable 3rd. Cruz gets on and why not in this wide open affair?

5 Zanos 6-1 (off the board)
2nd start for the Wright barn after he lolly-gagged around the track for a distant 7th of 9 comes back dropping with Eddie M sticking.

11 Liberty’s Finale 12-1 (off the board)
After a pair 2nds he ran in a stake and an allowance and got whipped. Back to the level of success do not overlook this guy.

Race 6
2 Sierra Sunrise 5-1 (off the board)
Coming off her best run of the year 3rd just 2 lengths back looks to be set up for her best just in time and gets C Fig.

1 She’s An Eagle 6-1 (3rd place)
Gary Wales on board and you can see quite the battle between him and Juan G for 2nd and both are riding their behinds off so in a toss-up race like this I look also at the human element and like G W here on Eagle who has finished 3rd, 2nd 3rd, 2nd in last 4.

8 Doubleshotofheaven 3-1 (off the board)
J Whit has ridden this young lady in all 12 of her starts and has 3 wins and 3 places. May be the lone or controlling speed if so will be tough to overhaul.

Race 7
7 Lookout Taylor 8-1 (3rd place)
L-T was flying in last and finished 4th to Classic Leah and Constant Craving. Mawing also had his choice and stuck here a little improvement and a little pace to run at and over the top she goes.

1 Classic Leah 7-2 (off the board)
Leah has 3 2nds and a 3rd in last four and can not seem to hang on for a win. Love how she battles and doesn’t fold the tent so she is a must to include.

5 Constant Craving 5-2 (4th place)
Coming off a strong run as well would be no surprise.

Race 8
8 Friendswithbourbon 8-1 Scratched replace with (#5 Smashing Success) (Winner!)
I know her last two have been rough but she has been racing well above this level. I just think she wakes up big time here, her connections sure do.

1 National Heroine 3-1 (2nd place)
She has a tough time winning but not finishing in the top 3 with a 1-4-5 record from  16 starts. Have to include her in your exotics and show parlays.

6 Chante 5-1 (off the board)
Top trainer with a pair of them in here and this one coming off an impressive win back to back is a big possibility here.

Race 9
5 Sovereign Nation 3-1 (Winner!)
Top rider Cruz just won on him and wheels right back. Pretty wide open affair why not back the top rider and a top 10 trainer.

2 Don’t Remember 4-1 (off the board)
Between here and Turf Paradise this guy hasn’t missed the board in 5 straight races but no wins. Mawing will try to get him over the hump here.

8 Pamper Me Now 10-1 (off the board)
Hasn’t been running awful and now drops back down could make an impact late.

Race 10
2 The Press 9-2 (off the board)
Sentimental pick here and this guy is a hard trier. Jen fits him like a glove and used to be the Shake in the Shake in Bake with Barkley. The Press has been able to run for himself with the retirement of Bark and has a win, a 3rd place finish in the Longacres Mile and is just one of those that always gives an effort. My judgement is clouded with this guy I fully admit but The Press is my pick.

4 Clem Labine 5-2 (4th place)
I normally don’t care for shippers that have never run on the Auburn oval but first Mawing chooses this guy and he has a bullet work on the EmD track so he has been out with a serious run. Must be respected here.

8 Grinder Sparksaglo 7-2 (Winner!)
The 9-year-old could be another sentimental pick for me but let’s just say his first name “Grinder” is well earned. He has run  7 times this season for conditioner Robbie Baze and has 2 wins, 2 places, 1 show a 4th and a 5th. He is always in the mix and still capable of a win in a race like this.

Race 11
Who will win the final race of the year? The top 10 jockeys are all in and most of the top 10 trainers. This is a crazy wide open race so I will take a stab at it but know I am pressing the “All” button in my pick 4 and pick 5. Here we go with the finale!!

11 Merry Marie 7-2 (off the board)
I’ll go with the top trainer in Lucarelli and Javier Matias aboard. Merry Marie has run a pair of 2nds and out-finished a couple in here so gets my top pick in a tight one.

2 Maybee a Diva 6-1 (Winner!)
Top Jock Alex Cruz gets aboard this one lookin to finish with an exclamation point. Diva has been running fairly steady with a 5th and then a 4th might take a bigger step here.

1 A Good Snicker 9-2 (3rd place)
Solid connections with Kay and Bryson but on their 3rd straight different rider maybe Mawing will figure out this filly and would not be a shocker to me.

Larry’s Bets for Thursday, 10/29

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$200 WP (2) Bet: $400 Return: $1,120
$5 Super (1-2 with 1-2-5 with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: 0
$1 Pick 4 (1-2-5 with 2-3-4-5 with 1-5-7-8 with All) Bet: $384  Return: $272.10

2nd Race 
$200 WPS (4) Bet: $600 Return: $420
$1 Super (2-4-5 with (2-3-4-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: 0

3rd Race 
$200 WPS (5) Bet: $600 Return: $1,350
$3 Super (1-5-7 with 1-5-7 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: $1,226.70

4th Race
$200 WPS (6) Bet: $600  Return: $2,140
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$2 Super (1-4-6 with 1-2-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $540 Return: 0
$1 Pick 4 (All with 3-5-6-7-11 with 1-2-5-8-9 with All) Bet: $1,800 Return: 0

5th Race
$200 WPS (5) Bet: $600  Return: 0
$1 Super (3-5-11 with 2-3-5-11 with All with All) Bet: $648  Return: 0

6th Race
$200 WPS (2) Bet: $600  Return: 0
$1 Super (1-2-8 with 1-2-5-8 with All with All) Bet: $504 Result: 0
$1 Pick 4 (1-2-5-6-8 with All with 1-4-5-6-8-11 with 1-2-5-8) Bet: $1,080 Return: $2,363

7th Race
$200 WPS (7) Bet: $600  Return: $480
$1 Super (1-2-5-7-8 with 1-2-5-7-8 with All with All) Bet: $804 Result: 0
50-cent Pick 5 (1-2-4-5-6-7-8 with 1-2-4-6-9-11 with 1-4-5-8 with 2-4-5-6-8 with 1-2-9-11) Bet: $1,680   Return: 0

8th Race 
$200 WPS (5) Bet: $600 Return: $2,180
$1 Super (1-5-6 with 1-4-5-6-11 with All with All)  Bet: $1,080  Return: $2,092.50
$1 Pick 4 (All- with All with 2-4-5-8 with 1-2-11) Bet: $1,188 Return: $1,113.50

9th Race 
$200 WPS (8) Bet: $600 Return: 0
$2 Super (2-5-8 with 2-5-8 with All with All)  Bet: $504 Return: 0

10th Race
$200 WPS (2) Bet: $600 Result: 0
$200 WPS (8) Bet: $600 Result: $1,800
$2 Super (2-4-8 with 1-2-4-5-8 with All with All) Bet: $720 Return: $2002.40
$20 DD (2-8 with All) Bet: $440  Return: $834
$20 DD (All with 1-2-11) Bet: $320  Return: $834

11th Race
$200 WPS (1) Bet: $600 Return: $480
$200 W (2,11) Bet: $400 Return: $1,440
$2 Super (1-2-11 with 1-2-9-11 with All with All) Bet: $1,296  Result: 0

Total Bets: $21,528
Total Cashed: $2,2148.20
Difference: +$$620

______________________________________

DAY 37 (Wednesday)

Race 1
3 Spot On 5-2 (Winner!)
2nd last out her her first 2 starts of the season both wins and Eddie M has been aboard for all 3 and now drops in price from 25k to 15k. A must play.

2 Stay in Grace 9-5 (3rd place)
2 straight wire-to-wire wins going for 3 in a row if track comes up speed favoring this one will be tough to overhaul.

5 Suddenly Awesome 6-1 (4th place)
If pace dual scenario develops this one will be coming late and could certainly make an impact.

Race 2
2 Inquisition 7-2 (3rd place)
A couple of disappointing 5th place finishes since shipping up from No Cal but now parachutes to the bottom level with the leading jock up in Alex Cruz. Should make his presence known in this spot.

4 French Coast 9-5 (2nd place)
Coming off a 2nd place finish but was fading at the end, a win prior to that so much respect as M-L fav.

7 Bleu Musket 6-1(off the board)
Just snapped his maiden with Mawing and now starts vs winners at the bottom level has a chance.

Race 3
1 Mike Operator 2-1 (2nd place)
Other pace in here and Mike can sit just off and get first run will likely have to be overhauled in the stretch.

4 Purely Political 5-2 (Winner!)
Got a big win in last but will be coming from further back the question is can he get past Mike?

6 General Mach Four 3-1 (off the board)
Not often I pick 1-2-3 off the morning line but we’ll go with the General to save some time.

Race 4
6 R B Eye 5-1 (off the board)
I have been on this one all season and he has had a legitimate excuse in each one if he can finally get a clean trip and will have some pace to run at might be able to score an upset here.

2 Tograndpashousewego 7-2 (2nd place)
Won’t likely be on the lead but should be close and get a chance to take the lead near the top of the stretch can he hang on? Can he get the lead?

7 Vroysky 5-2 (off the board)
Front speed here can he control the pace enough to go flag-fall to finish? You should know by this point if speed is holding, if it is this is your guy.

Race 5
3 Check and Raise 7-2 (Winner!)
In a race which it feels like literally any of them could win this guy closed impressively for Mawing in the first time these two were paired and no reason why he won’t be rolling again.

6 Shifty Dancer 8-5 (3rd place)
Juan G had his choice in here and stuck with Shifty that gives me a strong indication he believes in this one so I will too.

4 Candy’s Martini 8-1 (off the board)
Candy came rolling late in last to get up for 4th. If Lorenzo gets this guy goin sooner he may get more than a superfecta appearance.

Race 6
8 Blame It On Royce 5-2 (3rd place)
22 career starts with a 7-3-6 record or 16 of 22 in the money plus some back class and this guy is formidable.

1 Cat’s Touch 4-1 (4th place)
3 of last 4 all 2nd’s only 3 career wins but has been knocking on the door all year but has yet to get that win.

2 Dallon’s Gold 8-1 (2nd place)
This 9-year-old doesn’t have blazing front end speed or a big kick but he has had his picture taken 12 times in his career. He is 12-10-9 from 68 lifetime starts and just when you think he is done he surprises like in his last with a 3rd place finish at 40-1.

Race 7
7 Judicial 3-1 (lost rider-off the board)
Crafty trainer is very careful placing and drops this one back to winning level, Wales sticks and I expect Judicial to be there in the mix at the end.

5 Emma’s A Beast 9-2 (2nd place)
Emma just got claimed by the Rosales barn and C-Fig chooses this one over another Rosales entry and is coming off a win plus 2 2nds and a 3rd in last 4.

6 Cherokee Louise 6-1 (Scratched) Re-Placed #3 G M T Baby (Winner!)
I like Lou in her last and she ran a dud but I will forgive that one and see if the run I expected is still in her.

8th Race
7 Brett 5-1 (2nd place)
Coming off a 2nd place finish and some improvement here might be enough but a pretty rough race here I will be selecting the All button on my Pick 4 and 5.

1 Fireball Red 10-1 (Winner!)
Cruz looked like he had a choice in here and he sticks with Red. I will beleive Alex and his agent have a better idea than I and will follow.

4 Freestone 7-2 (4th place)
Likely to get extremely overbet but tumbles in class after a close 2nd at 8k dropped to 5k and laid an egg and now drops to the bottom. Does not exude confidence shaky at best.

9th Race
7 Drizzy 6-1 (2nd place)
Drizzy tries to bookend his season winning his 1st start back in June and 3 of 4 decent runs with 3rd place finishes will try to get his 2nd win with Eddie Martinez aboard for all his runs.

3 Iron Rob 3-1 (4th place)
Last 3 runs you would have thought he would have gotten his elusive win but settled for minor awards. One last time for this guy here in 2020.

5 Mr Bingley 9-2 (off the board)
Jennifer got her 500th win at Emerald Downs aboard this hard trier and coming off another solid run finishing 2nd. She may get another big run from Mr Bingley here.

10th Race
9 Pure Pursuit 5-2 (3rd place)
6 starts this year for double P and 3 wins, 2 2nds and 1 dud. Last 4 2nd, 1st, 1st and 2nd a must in every possible bet.

8 D.O.’s Reignoffire 12-1 (2nd place)
Lots of lay-off lines and only 3 starts this season but in his 2nd start was a winner at 12-1 with Gary Wales and has been running at a higher tag. Drops down and Mr Wales gets back on. A sneaky upsetter here.

3 Mirror Image 5-1 (Winner!)
M-I is trying to finish the season perfect in the money. He has 2 wins, a 2nd and 3 shows for a 2-1-3 mark from 6 starts and the leading jock aboard in Cruz.

11th Race
8 Barabbas 12-1 (4th place)
Hunch play in the get-away race, had him in last and he ran an even 4th to split the 7 horse field. Making 3rd career start thinking he may have it all figured out here.

4 Full Regalia 7-2 (off the board)
Ships in from GG where he had limited success looking for the turn-around here and get that 1st win.

6 Goboldly 2-1 (3rd place)
Has had many chances and will be making his 11th start but has been knocking on the door with 2 2nds and 3 shows in last 5  ut doesn’t bode well for a win.

Larry’s Bets for Wednesday, 10/28

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$100 WPS (3) Bet: $300 Return: $680
$3 Super (2-3-5 with 2-3-5 with All with All) Bet: $216 Return: 0
$1 Pick 4 (2-3-5 with All with 1-4-6 with All) Bet: $441  Return: $189.80

2nd Race 
$100 WPS (2) Bet: $300 Return: $110
$3 Super (2-4-7 with 2-4-7 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: 0

3rd Race 
$100 WPS (4) Bet: $300 Return: $425
$5 Super (1-4 with 1-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: $1,416

4th Race
$100 WPS (6) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$3 Super (2-6-7 with 2-6-7 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: 0
$1 Pick 4 (2-6-7 with All with 1-2-5-8 with All) Bet: $588 Return: 0

5th Race
$100 WPS (3) Bet: $300 Return: $1,100
$2 Super (3-4-6 with 2-3-4-6-8 with All with All) Bet: $480  Return: $810.20

6th Race
$100 WPS (4) Bet: $300  Return: $780
$3 Super (1-8 with 1-2-5-8 with All with All) Bet: $360 Result: 0
$3 Pick 4 (1-8 with 3-5-7 with All with 3-5-7-9) Bet: $576 Return: 0

7th Race
$100 WPS (7) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$10 Super (3-5-7 with 3-5-7 with All with All) Bet: $360 Result: $2,510
50-cent Pick 5 (3-5-7 with All with 3-5-7-9 with 3-5-6-8-9 with All) Bet: $1,680 Return: 0

8th Race 
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300 Return: $1,670
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$1 Super (1-2-4-7 with 1-2-4-7 with All with All)  Bet: $360  Return: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (All with 1-3-5-7 with 3-6-8-9 with All) Bet: $448 Return: $482.10

9th Race 
$100 WPS (7) Bet: $300 Return: $620
50-cent Super (3-5-7 with All with All with All) Bet: $315  Return: 0

10th Race
$100 WPS (8) Bet: $300 Result: $1,110
$200 W (9) Bet: $200 Result: 0
$2 Super (3-8-9 with 3-8-9 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: $6,873
$20 DD (3-8-9 with All) Bet: $ 480 Return: $756
$20 DD (All with 4-8) Bet: $360  Return: 0

11th Race
$100 WPS (4) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$100 WPS (8) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$10 EX (4-8 with All) Bet: $280  Result: 0
$1 Super (4-6-8 with 2-3-4-6-8 with All with All) Bet: $360  Result: 0

Total Bets: $12,624
Total Cashed: $19,532
Difference: +$6,908

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