Emerald Downs: Larry’s Lucky Picks Week 18

paulb

10/22/2020

(Katlama, WA) Good day yesterday betting pretend money like a high roller! So far this year I have wager 140k and collected 171k. In reality I have bet about 10k and collected close to being even. I have hit a couple of big tickets, for me anyway and in the end I will have had a great season of fun for a very reasonable investment. But I am killing it with pretend money! I hit the pick 5 yesterday but it took a $1,300 ticket and in reality the most I think I have bet in a Pick 5 is maybe $100 but usually around $50 if I even play it. 

I have done really well with the Superfecta’s and yes I do regularly hit the all button for 3rd and 4th and simply try to hit the exacta. With the lower take out this season the Super’s have been pretty good to me. 

Larry the SportsCat

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $151,118

Amount Collected: $186,374
Balance: +$35,256

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
334 Top Picks: 78 win, 60 place, 46 shows, 34 4th (23% win; 55% in the money; 65% in Superfecta)
336 2nd Picks: 62 win, 51 place, 63 show, 41 4th (18% win, 52% in the money, 65% in Superfecta)
333 3rd Picks: 53 win, 62 place, 50 show, 36 4th (16% win, 50% in the money, 60% in Superfecta)
Top 3 Win: 58%

DAY 36 (Thursday)

Race 1
1 Perfect D 7-2 (4th place)
Several in here took part in the Gottstein and you should throw that race out immediately. Perfect D was well over-matched now back to a place he can stalk and make a run.

2 Forever Gold 5-2 (Winner!)
Connections smart enough not to run in the Gottstein and will likely be bet heavy so gonna try and beat the M-L.

4 John’s On Point 3-1 (2nd place)
Stunned in career debut at 11-1 and after 2 shots against Dutton gets away from him and could get back to winning form.

Race 2
5 Legitimate Cause 2-1 (3rd place)
Will need a little pace to run at and if he gets will be flying late.

1 Fuzzy Dolphin 10-1 (off the board)
This guy never gets respect but yet is always close and has a win at 9-1, a 2nd at 7-1, 2 4th’s and last out a 5th but just 2 lengths back. Fuzzy will find a way to be in the mix and likely at a price.

2 Buckley Bay 8-5 (Winner!)
Bay is gonna get bet down to odds on and for good reason and will not be a shocker if he comes through.

Race 3
1 Clocker’s Choice 8-1 (4th place)
SJC to Mawing and I have one of those feelings that this guy will get turned around to her winning level.

4 Veraaj 7-5 (Winner!)
Front speed here and will need to be collared to defeat but that has happened in 7 of the last 8 times she went to the track. Looks like a classic overbet here.

3 Early Morn 6-1 (2nd place)
Has struggled all season but showed a little sign of life in last out looking for improvement.

Race 4
5 Magical Spell 5-2 (off the board)
Has been at a higher class and in a Stake now drops to where she can be dangerous.

7 Abraa Jabraa 4-1 (2nd place)
Worst run in a while was in last but Cruz sticks so would not surprise me if there is a quick turn-around.

4 Grazen Valor 5-1 (off the board)
If Eddie M can get her out on the lead alone might be able to wire this one.

Race 5
8 Madigan Squeeze 5-1 (2nd place)
Firster coming off a bullet and set up on the outside, C Fig can have her well positioned if she is ready to fire she may have found a spot to debut.

7 House of Lords 7-2 (3rd place)
Has not lived up to connections hopes with 3 poor showings at MSW. This will be a strong test of the MSW to maiden claiming theory.

3 Gabba Gabba Hay 9-5 (Winner!)
Two even efforts and now drops in half in class. Will be the one to beat.

Race 6
6 Tiger on Your Six 7-2 (off the board)
4 starts this season began with a win and now 3 straight 2nd place finishes. How can you leave him out of the picture?

7 Peppered Appeal 6-1 (3rd place)
I had this one in my Pick 3 when he won at 20-1 to return $999 so I am gonna stick plus Mawing rode him brilliantly and if he gets some speed to run at and if the rail opens could be right back in the winner’s circle.

8 Irish Swing 5-1 (4th place)
Irish will be between these two and will get first jump on Pepper should be in good position at the top of the stretch.

Race 7
1 Ethan’s Animal 7-2 (Winner!)
Loved this one in his career debut and he finished a solid 2nd. A little improvement gets him the money.

7 Muddermamasapaint 6-1 (off the board)
Ran in the Gottstein in last and in debut checked. If he gets a clean trip we may see why the connections are so excited for this guy.

8 Falsely Accused 12-1 (4th place)
SJC to Mawing and after strong improvement from debut to an even 4th place run in last and now Mawing up I expect another step forward.

8th Race
7 She Began Again 3-1 (3rd place)
Wales just missed by a nose in 1st start here 2 back then an even 3rd, gonna go one way or the other I’m thinking its win time.

10 Timberlake Gage 5-1 (Winner!)
Looked like she had this one wrapped up and got nailed on the wire. C-Fig may get her to last a few more steps and may be enough.

1 Doubleshotofheaven 9-2 (2nd place)
Will be on or close to the lead. Speed is always dangerous and like in last she may not stop again.

9th Race
2 Lolo Panilolo 5-2 (off the board)
Comes out for the always strong Cooper-Penney barn and coming off an impressive win at 8-1. He was over looked earlier in the season at 31-1. Will be the one to beat here.

3 Stand To 4-1 (Winner!)
Closed well on the speedy Papa’s Golden Boy to finish 3rd in last and has never run a bad race in 4 career starts with a win and 3 shows. No reason can’t be on the board again here.

6 Spittin Image 3-1 (2nd place)
Will be the one to catch with Cruz aboard will be a challenge for sure.

10th Race
3 Barabbas 5-1 (4th place)
2nd lifetime start after showing speed and then finishing 5th. Now drops in class in half and with expected 2nd out improvement like his chances.

6 Little House 9-2 (off the board)
Two sub-par outings and now tumbles in class and picks up Juan G in a SJC look for best effort yet.

1 Go Boldly 2-1 (2nd place)
Cruz had his choice of several but stayed here and will likely be on the engine breaking from the 1 hole.

Larry’s Bets for Thursday, 10/22

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$100 WP (1) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$5 Super (1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with All with All) Bet: $360  Return: $1,137.50
$1 Pick 4 (1-2-3-4 with All with 1-3-4-5-6 with 1-3-4-5-7) Bet: $600  Return: $79.40

2nd Race 
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$3 Super (1-2-5 with 1-2-3-5 with All with All) Bet: $324  Return: 0

3rd Race
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$5 Super (1-4 with 1-3-4 with All with All) Bet: $400 Return: $414

4th Race
$100 WPS (7) Bet: $300  Return: $450
$100 WP (5) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$3 Super (4-5-7 with 4-5-7 with All with All) Bet: $360  Return: 0

5th Race
$100 WP (8) Bet: $200   Return: $250
$2 Super (3-7-8 with 3-7-8 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: $664.40
$1 Pick 4 (3-7-8 with 1-6-7-8 with 1-7-8 with All) Bet: $480 Return: $211

6th Race
$100 WPS (6) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$1 Super (6-7-8 with 1-3-6-7-8 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: 0
50-cent Pick 5 (6-7-8 with 1-3-7-8 with All with 2-3-6 with All) Bet: $1,260  Return: 0

7th Race
$200 WP (1) Bet: $400 Return: $1,120

$2 Super (1 with All with All with All) Bet: $672 Return: $7,583.20
$5 Pick 4 (1 with 1-3-5-7-10 with 2-3-5-6 with 1-3-6) Bet: $300  Return: 0

8th Race 
$100 WPS (10) Bet: $300  Return: $530
$2 Super (1-7-10 with 1-7-10 with All with All) Bet: $672 Return: $1,118.60

9th Race 
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200  Return: 0
$3 Super (2-3-6 with 2-3-6 with All with All) Bet: $360  Return: $653.10
$20 DD (2-3 with All) Bet: $280  Return: $464
$20 DD (All with 3-6) Bet: $280 Return: 0

10th Race
$100 WPS (3) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$3 Super (1-3-6 with 1-3-6 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: 0

Total Bets: $10,428
Total Cashed: $14,675
Difference:

__________________________________________________

DAY 35 (Wednesday)

Race 1
6 Hoss 8-5 (2nd Place)
Several know each other in this race but Leslie Mawing is a difference maker he is winning at a 25% clip since getting here from Minnesota. He may be the difference in what could easily be a tight finish.

3 Dropyourbuffs 9-5 (3rd Place)
Any of the top 3 could win this including this guy. Two 3rds and a 2nd in his last 3 so will tonight finally be the night?

5 Mensch 5-2 (4th Place)
Actually beat Hoss in last out and now gets Wales don’t see how you can leave out in this one.

Race 2
5 Licorice Drop Pops 4-1 (3rd place)
Had won 3 in a row then stepped up in class to snap the win streak and now drops back to winning level I think Lic  bounces back with C-Fig aboard.

1 Mitch and John E 3-1 (Winner)
Drops to the bottom here has never been this low loos like now or never.

4 Emily’s Gold 9-5 (2nd place)
Juan G had a choice and sticks here so I must believe in the winningest jockey in  EmD history.

Race 3
2 Owner’s Prestige 8-5 (3rd place)
Drops in half from 10k to 5k and the Blaine Wright trainee will be very tough in this one.

3 Javu 3-1 (off the board)
My selection to upset the top pick would not leave this one out of the pick 3’s and 4’s or tri’s or super’s. Gonna be in the top 2.

1 Omache Kid 4-1 (2nd place)
The id has won 4 times this season searchin for #5 but taking on tougher company.

Race 4
6 Tumac Mountain 4-1 (3rd place)
Dropping in class and will sit 3 or 4 lengths back and should be flying late but looks like will need some pace to run at.

3 Vincentes Shadow 2-1 (2nd place)
Juan G up and just missed by a nose in last out. Look for V to be right back in the mix.

1 Always Working 5-1 (Winner!)
I have chased this one all season and he paid off for me in his last at 8-1! I can’t abandon him now.

Race 5
2 Dontkissntell 7-2 (Winner!)
Has been knocking on the door in 3 straight stakes now steps down to allowance and fits the top jock perfectly.

1 Diamonds R 9-2 (off the board)
Has not really had a chance to just run in a race and has been chasing Stakes races. This may be the spot for D-R to shine.

6 Fortune’s Freunde 8-5 (off the board)
Really deserves to be top pick but trying to beat the fav here.

Race 6
7 Friendswithbourbon 9-2 (off the board)
Only 3 lifetime starts and after an impressive maiden win 2 back connections pushed the boundaries and came back with a pop and stop effort. This level a lot more realistic and a bounce back would not be surprising.

6 Full Speed Ahead 4-1 (4th place)
Has  been toiling at a much higher level and hitting the board now drops will that get her over the top? It just might.

1 Golden Delight 5-2 (Winner!)
Began career 6 races ago with a win. Has been running at a much higher level although with little success. May roll over this field or may not hard to judge where this one belongs but must include.

Race 7
1 Zeynep 8-1 (4th place)
Lightly raced Zeynep was handily beaten by Dutton in last and the M-L fav Camden High also was about 5 lengths in front but the merry go round race strings them all out and now this one returns with some pace to run at like the 8-1 hope I get it.

3 Camden High 2-1 (2nd place)
Earned favorite status but gonna try to beat him.

2 Zippin Sevenz 5-2 (Winner!)
Just broke her maiden handily so may be this good as Cruz sticks.

Race 8
4 Cherokee Louise 3-1 (off the board)
C-L can sit right behind the pace and pounce. Louise has been right there in last 3 with a win and 2 place’s.

5 Classic Leah 6-1 (2nd place)
May be the lone front speed and if left alone, especially if the track is favoring the front end, could be tough to catch.

2 Constant Craving 7-2 (3rd place)
Coming off a strong win may be ready to go back to back.

Race 9
8 Pistol Power 7-2 (3rd place)
3 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd in last 5 and once was betting favorite at 7-2. Never been lower than 5-2 so never has gained the confidence of the bettors but all he does is win. I bought in when he was 8-1 and I am not going anywhere now.

6 Mike Man’s Gold 5-1 (4th place)
Old Mike got it done 2 back and made a strong run in last but ended up 4th. One more in him before the season and maybe career is over for this 10-year-old.

4 Rockandahardplace 3-1 (off the board)
If Eddie can keep his goggles and helmet cap on this trip he may get Rock to the line first. A must use.

Race 10
4 Dreamcatcher 3-1 (off the board)
Has been ultra consistent either 1st or 2nd except the one time he drifted up the claiming ladder and quickly jumped back to his success has blossomed.

8 This Great Nation 5-2 (2nd place)
Has disappointed as betting fav a couple of times this season and  can’t seem to get out of the 4th and 3rd spots but drops and may improve.

1 Don’tbeshywillie 8-1 (4th place)
Last out a Mile, before then the slop back to favorite distance and will get a fast track may return to better form.

Larry’s Bets for Thursday, 10/22

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$100 WP (6) Bet: $200 Return: $190
$5 Super (3-6 with 3-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $240  Return: 0
$1 Pick 4 (3-5-6 with All with 1-2-3 with All) Bet: $324   Return: 0

2nd Race 
$100 WP (5) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$100 WP (1) Bet: $200  Return: $560
$5 Super (1-4-5 with 1-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $360  Return: $332.50

3rd Race
$100 WPS (3) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$10 Super (2-3 with 1-2-3 with All with All) Bet: $480 Return: 0

4th Race
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300  Return: $1,600
$3 Super (1-3-6 with 1-3-6 with All with All) Bet: $216  Return:  $1,521
$4 Pick 3 (1-3-6 with 1-2-6 with All) Bet: $252 Return: $610.40

5th Race
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200  Return: $500
$5 Super (1-2-6 with 1-2-6 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: 0
$1 Pick 4 (1-2-6 with All with 1-2-3 with All) Bet: $441 Return: $95.10

6th Race
$100 WPS (7) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$3 Super (1-6-7 with 1-3-6-7 with All with All) Bet: $540 Return: $557.70
50-cent Pick 5 (1-3-6-7 with 2-3 with All with All with 1-4-7-8) Bet: $1,323  Return: $8,171.15

7th Race
$100 WP (1) Bet: $200 Return: 0

$3 Super (1-2-3 with 1-2-3 with All with All) Bet: $210 Return: $148.20
$1 Pick 4 (1-2-3 with All with 4-6-7-8-9 with All) Bet: $840  Return: 0

8th Race 
$100 WPS (4) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$5 Super (4 with 2-3-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $400 Return: 0

9th Race 
$100 WPS (8) Bet: $300  Return: $170
$1 Super (4-6-8 with 4-6-7-9 with All with All) Bet: $252 Return: 0
$20 DD (6-8 with All) Bet: $320 Return: 0
$20 DD (All with 4-8) Bet: $400 Return: 0

10th Race
$100 WPS (4) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$2 Super (1-4-8 with 1-4-8 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: 0

Total Bets: $10,118
Total Cashed: $14,456
Difference: +$4,338

 

www.elisportsnetwork.com

 

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