Emerald Downs: Larry’s Lucky Picks Week 17

paulb

10/15/2020

(Katlama, WA) Made a little profit yesterday but missed right in the middle which killed all my pick 4’s and 5’s. Hit a huge Super was the difference in my day. Here is my picks for Day 34!

Larry the SportsCat

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $130,572

Amount Collected: $157,243
Balance: +$26,671

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
314 Top Picks: 76 win, 58 place, 40 shows, 37 4th (24% win; 55% in the money; 67% in Superfecta)
316 2nd Picks: 57 win, 49 place, 60 show, 39 4th (18% win, 53% in the money, 65% in Superfecta)
313 3rd Picks: 47 win, 55 place, 49 show, 32 4th (15% win, 48% in the money, 58% in Superfecta)
Top 3 Win: 57%

DAY 34 (Thursday)

Race 1
5 Papa’s Golden Boy 1-1 (Winner!)
Certainly has proven himself at this distance but has the trips around 2 turns in his last 2 races taken a toll? This race isn’t as cut and dry as many think I believe I will pick this one but hitting the All button in my Pick 4 bet.

4 Stand To 6-1 (3rd place)
Making his 4th career start after a pair of 3rds and then an impressive MSW win. Is this the beginning of something greater? Possibly.

3 Hard to Deny 2-1 (2nd place)
Nearly got Unmachable in last must give respect to this guy and could be the spoiler to Papa.

Race 2
4 RB Eye 9-2 (3rd place)

I know it doesn’t look like it but this guy has a great kick and in each of his races this year has tried to come up the rail and every time has run into traffic issues. If he gets a clean shot I am convinced he has a win in him.

2 Wilson to Lockett 3-1 (Winner!)
Another closer that just hasn’t quite had everything set up for him but my top pick might get the jump on him.

3 Igottabooboo 5-2 (Scratched) Replaced with #1 Vroysky (4th place)
Might be the best front speed of the field if he can shake loose may be tough to collar but looks to me there will be pace for my two top picks to run at.

Race 3
7 Street Shadow 5-2 (off the board)

Just missed with a deep close and an eye catching stretch run will be flying late.

1 Tothemoonandback 7-2 (Winner!)
One of several 1st time starters in here this one comes our for the Cooper’s not sure about the 1 hole that will be the big detriment but has shown some quickness in the morning can she get a good break is the question?

4 Only Danielle 9-2 (4th place)
Another first time starter who could certainly get the jump on this group and not stop.

Race 4
6 Genoa Bay 7-2 (2nd place)

A really tough race to handicap here but this one has the best speed and may be on the lead or close and I believe will be ultra stout down the lane.

2 Cat’s Champ 9-2 (off the board)
Ran a very even race last out and in this match-up may be all he needs.

1 Astro Cat 12-1 (4th place)
A gut hunch on this guy making some progress this is a definite all button.

Race 5
2 Jacana 6-1 (4th place)
Jacana hasn’t run a bad race, 5 career starts and 5 Superfecta finishes with a 2nd, 3 3rds and a 4th and just missing by a head in last settling for the show. Little concerned she is finding ways to lose tho.

5 Time n’ Time Again 7-5 (Winner!)
TnT is dropping out of a winners race where she ran 4th and back to MSW but this will be her 19 career start and she has 7 2nds and 5 shows but hasn’t been able to get the win.

6 He’s Relentless 7-2 (Scratched) Replaced with 7 Criterian (2nd place)
A shipper from Hastings and despite some smart looking runs has never run a race on the mile oval and that can be a  hurdle for some.

Race 6
6 Whata Flirt 9-2 (Winner!)
Ran a dud in last  but 2 back wired the field and now drops from 8k to the bottom and picks up the red hot Leslie Mawing.

5 National Heroine 9-5 (off the board)
The new Emerald all-time leading jockey Juan Gutierrez jumps in and she is always in the mix and would be no surprise.

3 O’s So Serious 7-2 (4th place)
A win, 3 shows and a 4th in 5 career starts This filly is Serious about running.

Race 7
7 General Mach Four 3-1 (Winner!)
Eddie Martinez has been shut out for the past 3 straight days if he is still looking for a win looks like this is the latest he will find one.

2 Ronton 5-2 (3rd place)
Been right there in last 2 but can he dig down a little more to get the win. I would not take lower than the 5-2 morning line tho.

3 Deputy’s Command 5-1 (2nd place)
Not sure why Mawing takes this one over Zippin Wine where he just finished 2nd while taking 4th on Deputy but I am gonna follow along here.

Race 8
3 Lobanese 5-2 (Winner!)
Sitting on 2 wins in a row and sticking with Eddie and class 3 in a row is very likely.

7 If I had a Nickel 8-1 (4th race)
Shipping in from No Cal was running at a slightly higher tag but Alex Cruz jumps on to give him a great chance.

5 Seattle Smoke 9-2 (off the board)
The Smoke was coming in his last but ran out of real estate if C Fig gets after him a little sooner he may roll over the top for all the marbles.

Race 9
2 Smoothie Lee 7-2 (Winner!)
Smoothie scratched out of a race on Wednesday to run in this one and I always like to see that the connections simply feel they have a better chance here so I will trust them.

4 Jimjimmyjames 5-1 (Scratched) Replaced with 6 Iron Rob (3rd place)
Jimmy I have been on all year and I am running out of time. Coming off a good 2nd and drops the stars may have finally aligned.

3 Mr Bingley 6-1 (2nd place)
This guy is such a hard trying sort I gotta keep him in the mix.

Race 10
2 A Good Snicker 7-2 (off the board)
Kinda strange to see a 5 furlong race at this stage of the game and so I am looking for speed and Snicker can and may be on the lead or just off looks tough to me.

4 Merry Marie 5-2 (2nd place)
I had this one in her last at 19-1 and she finished a solid 2nd and passed my top pick in the stretch. It may come down to these two.

3 Queen Breezy 5-1 (off the board)
There is a lot of speed signed on here and so if indeed the pace does back up there may be enough time for a closer and Queen will be running late with Alex Cruz on board.

Larry’s Bets for Thursday, 10/22

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$100 WP (4) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$10 Super (3-4-5with 3-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $360  Return: $172
$1 Pick 4 (All with All with 1-3-7 with 1-2-6) Bet: $225   Return: $115

2nd Race 
$100 WP (4) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200  Return: $440
$5 Super (1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with All with All) Bet: $180  Return: 0

3rd Race
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300  Return: $700
$1 Super (1-4-7 with 1-4-7 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: 0

4th Race
$100 WPS (6) Bet: $300  Return: $350
$2 Super (6 with 1-2-3-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $160  Return: 0

5th Race
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200  Return: 0
$1 Super (2-5 with All with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: $151
50-cent Pick 4 (2-5-7 with 3-5-6 with 2-3-5-7 with All) Bet: $162 Return: $31

6th Race
$100 WPS (3) Bet: $300  Return: $960
$1 Super (3-5-6 with All with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: $2,303
50-cent Pick 5 (3-5-6 with 2-3-7 with 3-5-7 with 2-6 with All) Bet: $243  Return: $413

7th Race
$100 WP (7) Bet: $200 Return: $500

$100 WP (3) Bet: $200 Return: $250
$2 Super (2-3-7 with 2-3-7 with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: $377
50-cent Pick 4 (All with 1-3-5-7-9 with 2-3-6 with All) Bet: $472.50  Return: $95.80

8th Race 
$100 WPS (7) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$1 Super (3-5-7 with 3-5-7-9 with All with All) Bet: $378 Return: $738

9th Race 
$100 WP (2) Bet: $300  Return: $750
$2 Super (2-6 with 2-3-6-8 with All with All) Bet: $240  Return: $1,234
$20 DD ( 2-6 with All) Bet: $360  Return: $552
$20 DD (All with 2-4) Bet: $280 Return: 0

10th Race
$100 WPS (2) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$1 Super (2-3-4 with 1-2-3-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $504  Return: 0

Total Bets: $7,525
Total Cashed: $10,132
Difference: +$2,607

___________________________________________________

DAY 33 (Wednesday)

Race 1
2 Pin Up Lady 3-1 (Winner!)
Just won with the leading rider Alex Cruz aboard by nearly 5 lengths so why wouldn’t I think she could go back to back.

1 Tomorrow’s Mine 7-2 (3rd place)
Coming off a neck win also shooting for back to back wins

3 Secret Paranoia 5-2 (4th place)
Won by 10 then lost by a neck to my 2nd pick got claimed now new connections and new rider, shaky at best.

Race 2
3 Mike Operator 2-1 (Winner!)
Mike may be the lone speed and there are several closers but I think they will all have to catch this guy and he may put to much distance on them to catch him.

7 Miso Fast 3-1 (3rd place)
Miso may be the closest to Mike sitting right behind and might get first run but this one is somewhat of a plodder and will need to stay close for shot.

6 Demerara 15-1 (off the board)
The rest of the field is stepping up in class this one is dropping and despite very dull efforts recently just may wake up here.

Race 3
2 It’s Curlin Time 4-1 (2nd place)
After attracting interest in her first career start at 4-1 she disappointed with a 6th place run after showing some run early then stopping. Going to give her another chance here.

5 Pluma 7-2 (off the board)
Despite finishing 11 lengths behind my 3rd pick it was her 1st start and an even effort. I expect a definite step forward in this one.

3 Unlimiteddataplan 2-1 (Winner!)
Even though this one ran a winning race in last byt fell a head short and had a huge lead over the others she is starting her 7th race and has found 6 ways already not to get the job done. She may win for fun but believe she will get get down and will take a shot at beating her again.

Race 4
4 Freestone 8-5 (off the board)
Trainer Blaine Wright drops this one down after just missing at a much higher level. I don’t like picking this one on top but this really is a show your hand race for Freestone.

2 Don’t Remember 9-2 (2nd place)
I love the SJC here to Leslie Mawing and he really should be my top pick is what my gut is telling me a must include in this one.

3 Sovereign Nation 10-1 (Winner!)
Switch back to Cruz and should be on a fast track if the weather holds, if so back to favorable conditions and will be on the engine could last at a price.

Race 5
5 Doctor Bruce S 7-2 (off the board)
The Doc has an interesting pattern he began the year with a 3rd, then a win, then a 4th, then a win, then a 6th, yup up next a win and then last time out he finished 4th so the pattern has this guy winning today. Plus he is dropping from 5k to 2500 and best sign of all leading rider Alex Cruz who rode his last 2 wins is back. This amazing 11-year-old looks to add his 12th career victory right here.

4 Dyf 9-2 (2nd place)
This drops back to his last winning level and comes off a solid 4th place run at the higher level would be no surprise.

3 Eddie and the King 3-1 (3rd place)
Not a lot of speed signed on here and Eddie may get to control the pace and never give it up.

Race 6
4 Live a Good Life 5-2 (Winner!)
Jorge Rosales and C-Fig have been a force this season and this guy won in his first out here back in July, since a 3rd an off the board and a pair of seconds including his last out. Looks lie he’s sitting on his 2nd win.

10 Startender 9-2 (off the board)
Ships in from NoCal for 2nd all-time leading trainer Tim McCanna despite 2 recent dull efforts I like the drop in class but even more like the fact he has a work in him at Emerald albeit a slow work at least he’s been on the track. I expect a good effort here.

6 Brett 7-2 (2nd place)
After a really good season put up his worst effort in last so is he ready for a break or was it just one of those days?

Race 7
5 Mike Man’s Gold 3-1 (4th race)
I picked an 11-year-old earlier and now I’m going with a 10-year-old as he woke up big time in his last after a stellar 9-year-old season. Look for 2 in a row from “the Man”.

7 Mirror Image 7-2 (2nd place)
4 races this season is a double winner with a 2nd and a 3rd so how can you not include this one?

8 Golden Cowboy 4-1 (off the board)
2 wins in a row and climbing the claiming ladder can he continue he has the running style just off the pace and gets first run. Would be no surprise.

Race 8
1 Stay in Grace 9-5 (Winner!)
Grace has been in the top 2 4 straight with 2 wins and 2 places no reason she won’t be in the mix once again and a 3rd win may be one the way.

5 Close the Show Lo 3-1 (4th place)
She may not have enjoyed the mud in her last and finished 3rd behind Grace. A fast track and she might turn the tables.

4 Suddenly Awesome 8-1 (3rd place)
Another one that may not have enjoyed the mud and with what looks like pace to run at may be flying late and could be the price you’re looking for in your Pick 3, 4 and 5. (3rd place)

Race 9
6 Linch the Cat 10-1 (off the board)
1st time out this year after 3 starts last season but the connections thought a lot of this one last year starting him in a maiden special, a maiden 25k and a maiden 8k and although never ran much, the belief they had something was there and now starts at the bottom just might pay off last year’s belief in the get-away race.

8 He’s Bandido 3-1 (4th place)
I have been picking this guy all season and now he starts in his 17th career race still looking for the diploma. Have to think he will be in the super and just might finally get his picture taken.

1 Bleu Musket 4-1 (Winner!)
Has never been less than 10-1 in 7 career starts until last out at 9-1 but has 3 second place finishes can’t dismiss.

Larry’s Bets for Wednesday, 10/14

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$100 WPS (2) Bet: $300 Return: $1,030
$2 Super (1-2-3 with 1-2-3 with All with All) Bet: $144 Return: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (1-2-3 with 3-6-7 with All with All) Bet: $252  Return: $208

2nd Race 
$100 WP (3) Bet: $200 Return: $340
$1 Super (3-6-7 with 3-6-7 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: 0
$2 Pick 3 (3-6-7 with 2-3-5 with All) Bet: $144  Return: $126

3rd Race 
$100 WPS (2) Bet: $300 Return:  $400
$1 Super (2-3-5 with 2-3-5 with All with All) Bet: $180 Return: $164

4th Race
$100 WPS (2) Bet: $300  Return: $360
$2 Super (2-3-4 with 2-3-4 with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: $2,892
$1 Pick 4 (2-3-4-6-7-8 with 3-4-5 with All with 5-7) Bet: $360 Return: 0

5th Race
$100 WPS (5) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$1 Super (3-5 with 3-4-5-7-8 with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: 0
50-cent Pick 5 (3-4-5 with 4-10 with 5-7 with 1-4-5 with All) Bet: $162  Return: 0

6th Race
$100 WPS (4) Bet: $300  Return: $470
$1 Super (4-6-10 with 4-6-10 with All with All) Bet: $336 Return: $451
$1 Pick 4 (All with 5-7-8 with 1-4-5 with All) Bet: $405  Return: 0

7th Race
$100 WPS (5) Bet: $300 Return: 0

$1 Super (5-7 with 4-5-6-7-8 with All with All) Bet: $160 Return: 0

8th Race 
$100 WPS (4) Bet: $300 Return: $190
$1 Super (1-4-5 with 1-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: 0
$20 DD (1 with All) Bet: $180 Return: $100

$20 DD (All with 6) Bet: $140 Return: 0

9th Race
$100 WPS (6) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$200 W (1) Bet: $ Return: $440
$1 Super (1-6-8 with 1-6-8 with All with All) Bet: $252 Return: 0

Total Bets:  $6,235
Total Cashed: 6,701
Difference: +$466

 

 

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