Emerald Downs: Larry’s Lucky Picks Week 16

paulb

10/8/2020

(Katlama, WA) Got slapped around a little bit yesterday with some really low pay-outs didn’t get any longshots on those “all” button wagers. So stepping it up here today.

Larry the SportsCat

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $116,812

Amount Collected: $140,410
Balance: +$23,598

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
295 Top Picks: 67 win, 56 place, 39 shows, 35 4th (23% win; 55% in the money; 67% in Superfecta)
297 2nd Picks: 54 win, 45 place, 55 show, 36 4th (18% win, 52% in the money, 64% in Superfecta)
294 3rd Picks: 44 win, 51 place, 45 show, 28 4th (15% win, 48% in the money, 57% in Superfecta)
Top 3 Win: 56%

DAY 32 (Thursday)

Race 1
6 Hoss 3-1 (4th place)
After a dull effort in debut at Pleasanton shipped up for a legit 3rd place run now gets an SJC to Leslie Mawing expect another step forward in the progression.

1 Sherm 2-1 (Winner!)
Talk about an SJC (Significant Jockey Change) but still this one has toiled in the maidens for 14 races this is #15 won’t be surprised if he wins and won’t be surprised if he doesn’t.

4 Goboldly 5-2 (3rd place)
Lays just off the pace or can take the lead if handed over and should be in the mix by the end of the one trip around.

Race 2
2 Muncey 7-5 (3rd place)
Muncey just ran 3rd to Unmachable and only a length behind. That run will win here although this is a tough little 5 hoss field.

3 Spittin Image 2-1 (2nd place)
The best of the rest is right here and leading rider Alex Cruz has been on him each time and sports a 1-1-2 record from 5 starts very consistent.

4 Lolo Paniolo 4-1 (Winner!)
I try not to pick the Morning line in order but this time it looks like I have no choice. Lolo has faced tougher and solid connections.

Race 3
3 Shes Got the Power (Winner!)
Had a solid run to finish 3rd in last out at a higher class then took a break and comes back at a lower tag. Set up for a big run.

4 Cancale 7-2 (2nd place)
Made a nice run in the slop to close within 3 lengths will get a fast track to see if she can finish the job.

1 I C Fire 5-2 (3rd place)
This one has been lumbering along in the maiden’s and did run a nice 2nd in last but having a tough time getting that diploma.

Race 4
7 Ethan’s Animal 7-2 (2nd place)
A first time starter not often I pick one over the rest of a field with at least 1 race under their belt but rock solid connections and an impressive work tab looks like this guy is skipping a few grades and headed straight to graduation.

4 Kowboykabin 3-1 (Winner!)
Kowboy does get involved early and 3rd time could be the charm.

3 Lt Bullett 6-1 (off the board)
I am picking this one because his name sounds like a Pro Wrestler.

Race 5
3 Coastal Jazz 4-1 (Winner!)
Drops from the vaunted MSW to maiden claimers has shown speed and been stopping now gets Alex Cruz and may not hit the wall here.

9 Friscoe Frills 4-1 (2nd place)
Just missed in last at this level. C-Fig sticks and a repeat puts her right in the mix.

2 Ima Rumbler 9-2 (4th place)
Firster with credentials and a bullet could be ready at first asking.

Race 6
3 Sassy Edie 3-1 (4th place)
Sassy has 2 wins a place and a show in last 4 and remains red hot. Cruz climbs aboard and will be a certain contender.

6 Gold Supply 5-2 (off the board)
Has run twice with a show and a win and Juan G sticks will be the one to aim for but think she may be caught late.

1 Z’s  Speranza 8-1 (off the board)
A couple of 3rd place runs if she can improve at all might pull the upset.

Race 7
9 Secrets of My Soul 12-1 (off the board)
Was off since last year then snapped her maiden in first out this year. Steps up big but Anaya clicked with her immediately and maybe she is a completely different horse from last year. Taking a flyer here.

7 Baby Rocks 5-1 (Winner!)
Broke her maiden and then tried a big step up now parachutes down to the bottom, turn-around possible here.

3 Salsa Verde 5-2 (2nd place)
I had her in last at 31-1 and she ran a good 3rd wheel her right back.

Race 8
4 Constant Craving 7-2 (Winner!)
Last 12 races finished in the Trifecta 10 times and the Super 11 with 3 wins and 5 seconds how can you leave out?

7 Little Dancer 5-2 (off the board)
L-D just scored  by a nose but the running style and has been running in the top 4 each race this season.

5 Classic Leah 4-1 (2nd place)
May be the lone front speed and will have to be caught. 

Race 9
2 Friendswithbourbon 5-1 (off the board)
Impressive in snapping her maiden in last and although other potential speed in this but Bourbon may just go coast to coast.

5 Full Speed Ahead 7-2 (off the board)
keeps finding a way to be on the board but trouble getting that 2nd win this could be the night.

1 Golden Delight 3-1 (off the board)
Solid first outing this year but a bit concerned about the rail post.

Race 10
3 Coleinator 3-1 (4th place)
This is a shaky one I am not a fan of 2 close losses but will give Cole one more chance.

4 Premier League 9-5 (3rd place)
The M-L fav will be tough in this spot trying to beat him but a win would be no surprise.

2 Peppered Appeal 15-1 (Winner!)
Listening to my gut here, love the switch to Mawing and just feel he’s one of those longshots that suddenly wakes up.

Larry’s Bets for Thursday, 10/8

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$100 WP (6) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$2 Super (1-4-6 with 1-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $144 Return: 0
$1 Pick 4 (1-3-4-6 with 2 with All with All) Bet: $168  Return: 0

2nd Race 
$100 W (2) Bet: $100 Return: 0
$50 WPS (4) Bet: $150 Return: $710

$20 Super (2 with 3 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: 0

3rd Race
$100 WPS (3) Bet: $300 Return: $740
$5 Super (1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return: $556.50

4th Race
$100 WPS (7) Bet: $300  Return: $730
$1 Super (3-4-7 with 3-4-7 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: $531.90

5th Race
$100 WPS (3) Bet: $300 Return: $445
50-cent Super (2-3-9 with 2-3-5-7-9 with All with All) Bet: $252 Return: $36.15
$1 Pick 4 (2-3-9 with All with 2-3-5-7 with 4-5-7) Bet: $324 Return: $442.30

6th Race                  
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$1 Super (1-3-6 with 1-3-6 with All with All) Bet: $252 Return: 0
50-cent Pick 5 (1-3-6 with All with 4-5-7 with 1-2-5 with All) Bet: $661.50  Return: 0

7th Race
$100 WPS (9) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$200 W (7) Bet: $200 Return: $540

$1 Super (3-7-9 with 2-3-7-9 with All with All) Bet: $220 Return: $91.90
50-cent Pick 4 (All with 4-5-7 with All with 2-3-4) Bet: $252  Return: $999

8th Race 
$100 WPS (4) Bet: $300 Return: $1,140
$3 Super (4-5-7 with 4-5-7 with All with All) Bet: $360 Return:
 $2,014.80

9th Race 
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$5 Super (1-2-5 with 1-2-5 with 1-2-3-4-5 with All) Bet: $360 Return: 0
$20 DD (2 with All) Bet: $140 Return: 0
$20 DD (All with 3-4) Bet: $280 Return: $2,246

10th Race
$100 WPS (2) Bet: $300 Return: $3,400
$2.50 Super (2-3-4 with 2-3-4 with All with All) Bet: $300 Return: 0

Total Bets: $6,388
Total Cashed: $14,624
Difference:  +$8,236

 _____________________________________________________________

DAY 31 (Wednesday)

Race 1
5 Officer of War 5-1 (2nd place)
Had been running in No Cal takes a big drop in class and picks up the leading rider in Alex Cruz while working regularly. 5-1 will be a gift.

1 Mark My Word 4-1 (3rd place)
2nd career start and drops in half in class after a lackluster debut. I think will make an impact here.

6 Haveulostyourmind 8-5 (Winner!)
Also a dropper from the top barn been playing musical jockeys with 4 starts and 4 different riders now in the 5th start and Javier Matias the first to repeat. I wouldn’t take a short price on this one.

Race 2
1 Oh Marvelous Me 7-2 (Winner!)
“Marv” has earned more than  200k in his 6 year- career and this 8-year better be met with respect. He has raced once this season at Emerald after very strong run in So Cal and an even 4th place run  in his only start of the season on his home course I expect Marv to show up big time here.

5 Catfish Hunter 8-5 (4th place)
Catfish beat Marv in his only start by 6 lengths in early Sept and has earned nearly 140k the one to beat for sure.

4 Proof It 4-1 (off the board)
Proof It in his last 8 races 2 wins, 4 places, 1 show and a 4th. Has early speed gotta think he has a shot here.

Race 3
7 Club Royale 3-1 (Winner!)
After running at higher levels this is now spotted for success. Leslie Mawing is off to a fast start since showing up here in the NW and believe he will get this one in the exacta at worst.

5 Firing Demons 4-1 Scratched (1 Jan’s Best) (3rd place)
First time starter from a solid barn with Juan G up could be the best.

3 Uncommonblessing 7-2 (off the board)
Another one dropping trying to find a level for this filly to fire and this just might be the graduation level.

Race 4
2 I Work for Carrots 4-1 (off the board)
This guy has been super consistent this season with 2 1sts, a 2nd, 2 3rds and a 5th in 6 starts. Would be no surprise here in a wide open affair.

7 Winning Bluff 6-1 (off the board)
After a few even runs and a change to Eddie Martinez in the irons makes this one very interesting to me.

3 Tiz Brilliant 3-1 (4th place)
Coming off a very nice win can sit off the pace and get 1st run if he repeats  could be very tough to overhaul.

Race 5
7 Drizzy 4-1 (3rd place)
A wide open race and this one drops a tad which may be the tipping point. I will take the ‘Driz in a toss up.

5 Shifty Dancer 2-1 (Winner!)
Looks to be the true speed could find some company but if not should be tough to pass down the lane but far from a lock.

1 Double A. Prospect 8-1 (off the board)
7 of 11 in the money at this distance but does step up slightly in class I will have in my Tri’s and Supers.

Race 6
4 Stratus Bird 5-2 (4th place)
Bird flew the Coop winning  by 13 lengths 2 races back at this Mile distance and same class level. The one to beat.

3 Sierra Sunrise 5-1 (Scratched) 1 Bishops of Compton (Winner!)
I had this one picked in her last where she ran a solid 3rd at 14-1. A little improvement puts her right there.

2 Florista 3-1 (3rd place)
Shipped in from No Cal and won by a half length but over a muddy track. Gonna have a fast track today will it make a difference?

Race 7
2 Aqua Frio 5-2 (3rd place)
Coming off a win and just too much back class can only see Aqua getting better.

5 Awesome Slate 7-2 (4th place)
Leslie Mawing gets aboard A-S after he has finished with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 3 starts this year at EmD.

6 West Coast Indy 8-1 (off the board)
Alex Anaya has clicked with this guy with a win and 3 places in 5 starts this season, must include.

Race 8
8 So Lucky 4-1 (3rd place)
Lots of early speed in this race including this guy but maybe he can lay just off choice in a tough one.

1 Mixo 5-1 (Winner!)
He doesn’t win often but he does hit the board a lot if a speed throwdown forms he could come over the top but think he will be in the Tri.

9 Owner’s Prestige 5-2 (off the  board)
Look to be on the engine but breaking from the 9 hole gives him options tough to leave out.

Race 9
5 Emma’s a Beast 5-2 (Winner!)
M-L fav but has yet to win yet  but been knocking on the door is this her night? I think so.

6 Port Lions 4-1 (off the board)
If Emma is to be a Beast she will have to get by Port Lions who is coming off a front running win and looking to repeat.

10 Bellamagic 6-1 (off the board)
Also coming off a win but came from off the pace. This race could set up for her to repeat.

Larry’s Bets for Wednesday, 10/7

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$75 WP (5) Bet: $150 Return: $195
$2 Super (1-5-6 with 1-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $144 Return: $157.20
50-cent Pick 4 (1-5-6 with 1-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $190  Return: $27.75

2nd Race 
$100 WP (1) Bet: $200 Return: $700
$2 Super (1-4-5 with 1-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $72 Return: 0
$2 Pick 3 (1 with All with All) Bet: $298  Return: $54.80

3rd Race 
$100 WP (7) Bet: $200 Return: $320
$5 Super (7 with 3-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $180 Return: $193

4th Race
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200  Return: 0
$1 Super (2-3-7 with 2-3-7 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (2-3-7 with All with 2-3-4 with All ) Bet: $252 Return: 0

5th Race
$100 WPS (5) Bet: $300 Return: $395
$1 Super (1-5-7 with 1-3-5-7 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: $275.80
50-cent Pick 5 (All with 1-2-4 with 2-5-6 with All with 5-6) Bet: $567  Return:

6th Race
$1 Pick 4 (All with 2-5 with All with 5-6-10) Bet: $378  Return: 0
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200  Return: 0
$1 Super (1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with All with All) Bet: $160 Return: 0

7th Race
$100 WPS (5) Bet: $300 Return: 0

$200 W (2) Bets: $200 Return: 0
$1 Super (2-5-6 with 2-5-6-8 with All with All) Bet: $270 Return: 0

8th Race 
$100 WP (8) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$1 Super (1-8-9 with 1-7-8-9 with 1-4-7-8-9 with All) Bet: $189 Return: $748.80
$20 DD (8 with All) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$20 DD (All with 5) Bet: $180 Return: $268

9th Race
$100 WPS (5) Bet: $300 Return: 
$200 W (6) Bet: $200 Return: 0
50-cent Super (5-6-10 with 5-6-10 with All with All) Bet: $168 Return: 0

Total Bets: $5,938
Total Cashed: $3,336
Difference: -$2,602

 

 

www.elisportsnetwork.com

 

 

Next Post

Trending Up: Jackson Proctor of Kentwood High School

10/7/2020 Kentwood SR. QB Jackson Proctor By Brandon Brown ESN Director of Content Jackson Proctor is entering his second and final season with the Kentwood Conquerors after transferring from Eastlake prior to last season. The 6-2 QB made and immediate impression on his new teammates and coaching staff as he […]
WordPress Image Lightbox

Our Emerald Downs content has a
NEW home over at:

PRO.EliSportsNetwork.com