Emerald Downs: Larry’s Lucky Picks Week 15

paulb

10/1/2020

(Katlama, WA) I had a huge day yesterday, best of the season! And today I am excited for Washington Cup Day!! 3 Stakes races and a $28,000 Pick 5 carry-over! I have tons of cash on hand so let’s get to it!

Larry the SportsCat

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $104,486

Amount Collected: $122,450
Balance: +$17,964

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
286 Top Picks: 64 win, 55 place, 36 shows, 34 4th (22% win; 54% in the money; 66% in Superfecta)
290 2nd Picks: 51 win, 45 place, 53 show, 34 4th (18% win, 51% in the money, 63% in Superfecta)
285 3rd Picks: 43 win, 51 place, 44 show, 27 4th (15% win, 48% in the money, 58% in Superfecta)
Top 3 Win: 55%

DAY 30 (Thursday)

Race 1
5 Wilson to Lockette 5-2 (2nd place)
The time is now for Russ to cook and finally drop a game winner into the hands of Lockette.

3 Tograndpashousewego 4-1 (4th place)
This guy has been off for a bit but crafty conditioner Charles Essex has been working him steadily for the return and could be ready to fire.

1 Candied Lute 6-1 (Winner!)
An SJC now has Juan G but still has a pair of 3rds a 2nd and graduated last out so 4-4 in the money will step up to winners but he doesn’t now any different.

Race 2
2 O’s So Serious 9-5 (3rd place)
Tumbles in class all the way to the bottom. One of those now or never races for this one.

5 Excessive Belief 5-1 (off the board)
Coming off a solid 2nd place finish in the mud and now will get a fast track can easily see another step up in improvement.

8 Bellamagic 4-1 (Winner!)
Was running 2nd, 3rd or 4th for four races in a row then a 6th but in the mud. Expect a bounce  back on the fast track.

Race 3
5 Irish Swing 3-1 (3rd place)
Loved this one in last but he came up a neck short. Think he gets it all this time.

3 Johnny Five 8-1 (off the board)
This guy is kinda turning into a plodder but he is in the mix so any little improvement could be the difference.

1 Mike Operator 5-1 (Winner!)
Had a solid outing last race sitting just off the pace and finished 3rd.

Race 4 Muckleshoot Tribal Classic $40,000
6 The Press 3-1 (4th place)
Tons of speed in here and The Press is coming into his own with a very good 3rd place finish in the Longacres Mile. If speed stops this one over the top.

1 Gold Crusher 4-1 (off the board)
Of the front speed this one has proven he can go the distance and just might be able to rate off of Papa and have first run.

2 Elliott Bay 5-2 (2nd place)
The local fav in the Mile ended up 4th but behind my top pick he will be dawdling along in the back of the field and will need a fairly clean trip to catch them all in the end.

Race 5 
5 Its Allabout Jerry 3-1 (2nd place)
My loyalty will come to an end on Jerry as he has plummeted to the bottom rung. Let’s see if he can get it going.

1 Ronton 4-1 (3rd place)
1st start since Feb and ran a good one settling for 2nd and can easily take the next step here.

7 One Tuff Minister 10-1 (off the board)
Been threatening in last 2 and might be ready to put it all together here.

Race 6 
2 This Great Nation 3-1 (4th place)
Caught this one at 7-1 and since has been in the mix, he is either ready to fire again or in need of some time off let’s see which way he is going.

5 Indygo Bo 5-1 (off the board)
Wins steps up and on a muddy track runs 4th now back to winning level no surprise here.

8 Rememberftobreathe 7-2 (Winner!)
The slide continues but can not fall any further so better get busy here.

Race 7 Washington Cup $40,000
6 Alittlelesstalk 6-5 (Winner!) 
Coming off a crushing performance in the Distaff and has had plenty of time to recover will be bet down and will be worthy of it.

2 For You Only 10-1 (off the board)
Before last stinker had run 3 straight solid 2nd place finishes to some tough customers not sure she can win but will use her in my verticals.

3 Dontkissntell 7-2 (3rd place)
More than anything else I just have a feeling this one is gonna run a good one.

Race 8 Gottstein Futurity $40,000
1 Dutton 1-1 (Winner!)
The absolute one to beat and not sure why he isn’t M-L’d at 2-5. Will be odds on and will make a big Pick 5 Carryover a Pick 4.

2 Naval Escort 6-1 (4th place)
Has faced the top gun before and took 3rd but 10 lengths behind top minor award challenger.

4 Coastal Kid 5-1 (3rd place)
Another contender for top minor award contender looks like a very chalky run here.

Race 9
8 Grinder Sparksaglo 5-1 (Winner!)
9-year-old Mike’s Man Gold won yesterday after a tough season so far and this guy has been “grinding” away but has yet to find the Winner’s Circle this year after multiple wins last year. Maybe it is the 9-year-olds week!

1 Wheel Rally 6-1 (off the board)
Wheel in his last 6 starts has 3 wins, 2 places and a show. Can’t really leave him out.

2 Bullet Drill 7-2 (4th place)
After 2 wins he stepped up took it on the chin and drops right back to his winning level.

Race 10
3 Emily’s Gold 5-2 (3rd place)
Plenty of speed signed on here and this one can sit right behind and will launch at the top of the stretch don’t see him being topped.

4 Mr Bingley 9-2 (off the board)
This guy tries each time and also sits just off the pace it may come down to him and top pick getting the best trip.

8 Cody’s Choice 5-1 (off the board)
Maybe the best front speed and if he can shake loose could last.

Race 11
5 A Good Snicker 3-1 (3rd place)
Lot’s of entries in here parachuting down in class and Snicker here comes from the always tough Cooper barn. No doubt will be in the mix.

6 Smashing Success 7-2 (Winner!)
After a career of even efforts, 6 starts with all finishes between 2nd and 5th now falls to the class basement. If this doesn’t work there is no further to fall.

4 Merry Marie 8-1 (2nd place)
Comes out for top barn and drops in class may be the level for ms M-M.

Larry’s Bets for Wednesday, 9/24

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$100 WP (5) Bet: $200 Return: $150
$1 Super (1-3-5 with 1-3-5 with All with All) Bet: $72 Return: $122
$1 Pick 4 (All with 2-3-5-8 with All with 1-2-4-6) Bet: $384  Return: $861.90

2nd Race 
$50 WPS (5) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$1 Super (2-5-8 with 2-5-8 with All with All) Bet: $180 Return: 0

3rd Race 
$100 WPS (5) Bet: $300 Return: $120
$1 Super (1-5 with 1-2-3-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: $676.90

4th Race
$100 WPS (6) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$100 W (1) Bet: $100 Return: 0
$1 Super (1-2-4-6 with 1-2-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $108 Return: $229.90 
$1 Pick 4 (All with All with 2-3-5-8 with 6) Bet: $192 Return: $91.10

5th Race
$1 Super (1-5-7 with 1-2-5-7 with All with All) Bet: $270  Return: 0
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300 Return: $140

6th Race
$100 WPS (5) Bet: $300  Return: 0
$100 W (2) Bet: $100 Return: 0
$1 Super (2-5 with 2-5-7-8 with All with All) Bet: $120 Result: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (All with All with 1 with All) Bet: $196 Return: $27.80

7th Race
$50 WP (2) Bet: $150  Return: 0
50-cent Pick 5 (All with 1 with 1-2-3-5-6-8 with 1-3-4-8-9 with 3-4-5-6-7-9) Bet: $630  Return: $66.60

8th Race 
$50 WPS (2) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$200 W (1) Bet: $200 Return: $260
50-cent Super (1 with 2-4-8 with All with All)  Bet: $168  Return: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (1-2-4-8 with 1-2-8 with All with 4-5-6) Bet: $162 Return: $28.85

9th Race 
$100 WPS (8) Bet: $300 Return: $890
$1 Super (1-2-8 with 1-2-8 with All with All)  Bet: $120  Return: 0
$5 Pick 3 (8 with All with 4-5-6)  Bet: $135 Return: $182

10th Race
$50 WPS (3) Bet: $150 Result: $70
$100 W (4) Bet: $100 Result: 0
$1 Super (3-4-8 with 3-4-8 with All with All) Bet: $126 Return: 0
$10 DD (All with 4-5-6) Bet: $270 Return: $60.40

11th Race
$100 WPS (4) Bet: $300 Return: $760

$100 W (3) Bet: $100 Return: 0
$1 Super (4-5-6 with 3-4-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $180  Result: $341.50
$10 Tri Box (3-4-5-6) Bet: $240 Return: $3,415

Total Bets: $6,993
Total Cashed: $8,494
Difference: +$1,501

 

__________________________________________________

DAY 29 (Wednesday)

Race 1
4 Always Working 4-1 (Winner!)
This dropped in half in class in last out and caught a muddy track and still ran 2nd. Gonna get a fast track on Wed and stays at the 8k level.

6 Shamisen 6-1 (4th place)
This one trailed my top pick in last to finish 3rd so pretty simple exacta in my book.

3 Freestone 5-2 (2nd place)
Won at this level in first out this season then stepped for 3 races now drops back down to winning level would be no surprise.

Race 2
6 Jacana 9-2 (2nd place)
In the old days same owner and same trainer of two horses in the same race they would have been coupled but not anymore so I think an Oak Crest Farms exacta is on the way and will go with the higher price to win it.

5 Long Lance 6-5 (Winner!)
Not sure why this one is 6-5 I understand being favored but 6-5 off a 2nd place finish at 8-1 is quite a drop.

1 Staredown 5-2 (off the board)
The owners lost this horse first time out and they claimed him right back that is a sign these folks really believe in this fella so I will believe with them.

Race 3
3 Oreo’s Dream 7-2 (Scratched) replaced with 1 Unlimited Data Plan (2nd place)
After 2 starts with even finishes Double stuff drops for a 2nd straight time and now may have found her winning level.

6 Gabba Gabba Hay 6-1 (3rd place)
A solid 4th place run in career debut and just 5 lengths out, with expected improvement may jump up and take it all.

8 Finished My P H D 3-1 (Winner!)
Likely favorite or 2nd fav at worst and for good reason and 2nd place run in career debut could easily take another step for the diploma.

Race 4
1 Licorice Pop Drops 5-2 (off the board)
3 straight wins and comfortable wins. Takes a minor step up in class I expect win #4 in a row.

7 Battle Point Red 4-1 (Winner!)
B-P-R won 2 in a row in a higher tag but with non-winner conditions dropped a little into open and ended up 4th now drops again should put him in the firing line.

5 Miso Fast 9-2 (2nd place)
Hard trying grinder could easily find his way into the trifecta and with the right trip take it all.

Race 5 
2 Cherokee Louise 2-1 (2nd place)
Just won at this level and has a win and 2nd in last but oddly 3rd different jockey why can’t louise get any jockey love? But Juan G is up so she is in good hands.

1 Tiger Mom 7-2 (off the board)
If top pick falters Tiger mom no it’s not Carole, might be the one to make the big run.

4 Zanab 4-1 (Winner!)
10 of her last 12 starts she has been in the Superfecta with a couple of wins mixed in so how can you not include her?

Race 6
2 Live a Good Life 5-1 (2nd place)
Shortens back up to 6f after an even effort and C Fig gets him in the race early again I think will be tough to top.

8 Brett 3-1 (off the board)
Brett outfinished my top pick but this guy has 1 win and 6 places in 11 lifetime starts so even if he gets to the lead the finish line better be there quickly seems to like to let up when he finds the front end.

3 True Regards 2-1 (off the board)
Been knocking on the door with a pair of 2nds in last two, I would not take a short price on this guy but that’s just me.

7th Race
2 Graycaster 9-5 (2nd place)
After 2 2nd place finishes including a loss by a neck now drops in class it’s either now or never.

7 Sleet Afleet 5-1 (off the board)
2 Belvoir charges in here and regular rider Jennifer Whitaker takes this one so I will follow her on her first choice.

10 Daytona Beach 6-1 (4th place)
This guy popped and stopped drastically in last but Gary Wales sticks with him which is a good sign. Could surprise.

8th Race
4 Mike’s Man Gold 3-1 (Winner!)
Mike has not been close to what he was last year as a 9-year-old and maybe father time has simply caught up and he’s ready for some wide open spaces but if he is going to bounce back it is in this spot.

1 Kitten’s Royal 5-1 (off the board)
This guy is a hard trying sort and in his last really showed he was ready for a break. Well he has had that break and been getting ready for this start. One downside is he has not even been around the track in a work, I am always wary of that.

2 Rocket Power 5-2 (3rd place)
Coming off a solid win and a repeat for the top barn is certainly more than a possibility.

9th Race
4 Dropyourbuffs 3-1 (3rd place)
Been on this Survivor bandwagon for a long time will I finally be rewarded I think there is a great chance.

2 Arugula 8-1 (Winner!)
I am rooting for this one with Amy Nelson owner/trainer she only has 2 starts and guess what Arugula has run twice with a 5th and now a 4th place finish for this 1 horse barn. Go Amy!!

5 Bleu Musket 6-1 (2nd place)
Old Bleu runs a good one then a bad one, decent then bad well he is on the decent side of the cycle so can it be enough for the win? Just maybe.

Larry’s Bets for Sunday, 9/23

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$75 WP (4) Bet: $150 Return: $945
$2 Super (3-4-6 with 3-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $144 Return: $532
$1 Pick 4 (All with 5-6 with All with 1-7) Bet: $172  Return: $209.80

2nd Race 
$50 WPS (6) Bet: $150 Return: $65
$4 Super (5-6 with 1-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $96 Return: 0
$5 Pick 3 (5-6 with All with 1-7) Bet: $140  Return: $88.50

3rd Race 
$50 WP (6) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$1 Super (1-6-8 with 1-6-8 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: $55.40

4th Race
$200 W (1) Bet: $200  Return: 0
50-cent Super (1-7 with All with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: $84.75
50-cent Pick 4 (1-7 with 1-2-4 with All with All ) Bet: $192 Return: $3,868

5th Race
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$100 W (2) Bet: $100 Return: 0
$1 Super (1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: $402.80
50-cent Pick 5 (1-2-4 with All with 2-7 with 1-2-4 with All) Bet: $504  Return: $481.50

6th Race
$1 Pick 4 (2-3-8 with 2-7-10 with 1-2-4 with All) Bet: $189  Return: 0
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200  Return: $210

7th Race
$100 WPS (7) Bet: $300 Return: 0

$200 W (2) Bets: $200 Return: 0
50-cent Super (2 with 5-7-10 with All with All) Bet: $180 Return: 0

8th Race 
$100 WP (4) Bet: $200 Return: $1,040
$20 DD (4 with All) Bet: $140 Return: $958
$20 DD (All with 2-4) Bet: $280 Return: $958

9th Race
$100 WPS (2) Bet: $300 Return: $1,620
$200 W (4) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$2 Super (2-4 with 2-3-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: $4,836.80

Total Bets: $5,087
Total Cashed: $16,355
Difference: +$11,269

 

www.elisportsnetwork.com

Next Post

Trending Up: Olympia Girls Soccer Head Coach Tamara Liska

9/30/2020 Olympia Girls Soccer Coach Tamara Liska By Matt Baide I interview Olympia girls soccer head coach Tamara Liska about where the team is at right now, what players are doing to stay in shape and about the Bears’ trip to the state tournament last season.   Elisportsnetwork.com
WordPress Image Lightbox

WATCH LIVE NOW!

Click here for LIVE high school athletics
via Eli Sports on the NFHS Network!