Emerald Downs: Larry’s Lucky Picks Week 14

paulb

9/24/2020

(Katlama, WA) A $21k Pick 5 Carry-Over and I am swinging for the fences on this one basically betting my season profit to catch this one if possible. It’s pretend money so why not!!

Larry the SportsCat

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $92,406
Amount Collected: $97,601
Balance: +$5,195

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
267 Top Picks: 59 win, 48 place, 31 shows, 32 4th (22% win; 52% in the money; 64% in Superfecta)
270 2nd Picks: 48 win, 45 place, 50 show, 32 4th (18% win, 53% in the money, 65% in Superfecta)
265 3rd Picks: 37 win, 46 place, 41 show, 25 4th (14% win, 47% in the money, 56% in Superfecta)
Top 3 Win: 54%

DAY 28 (Thursday)

Race 1
4 Unmachable 6-5 (Winner!)
In what looks like a Stakes race this is an easy pick, simple it’s this guy’s race to lose.

1 Muncey (3rd Place)
All he does is run behind the top pick and has 2 2nd’s and 2 3rds in back to back Stakes races.

3 Time N Time Again 6-1 (4th place)
Still a maiden but all he does is run 2nd and 3rd.

2nd Race
2 Mensch 5-2 (4th place)
Has been running at the distance with a pair of shows could be sitting on a big one here in this wide open affair.

5 Cooler Than You 10-1 (off the board)
SJC, Significant Jockey Change may wake this one up in a race that likely requires the “all” button.

7 Goboldly 9-5 (3rd pace)
M-L fav makes sense and will be on the front end will need to be passed.

3rd Race
9 Tough Rooster 8-1 (off the board)
In a really tough race looking for a price play and first thing is I like the change of rider from one with a handful of wins to the leading rider.

7 Slew’s Legacy 3-1 (2nd place) 
A couple of even runs may have primed Slew for his best effort yet.

3 Emerald Sea 10-1 (Winner!)
Hasn’t shown much in 2 lifetime starts but tumbles in class so maybe its enough to turn this one around.

4th Race
5 Malibu Misstress 3-1 (Winner!)
Last ran in a Stakes and finished 5th back in a spot where she can get her diploma the one to beat.

7 Stellaczar 5-2 (4th place)
Been running at the current class level and would be the other “one to beat”.

4 Frisco Frills 15-1 (2nd place)
This will be her 2nd lifetime start after a decent 5th place run just 3+ lengths from the win a little improvement would make this one interesting.

5th Race
7 Adjudged 6-1 (3rd place)
1st lifetime start this one this guy pulled up and walked off. 2nd start he finished and ran an even 5th place at 44-1. Now C-Fig jumps on this guy makes him very interesting.

2 Run Cordell Run 3-1 (Late Scratch)
1st time starter for the How We Roll guy and has fired 2 bullet works may be cranked at first asking.

5 Forever Gold 12-1 (Winner!)
This guy popped and stopped but solid connections have not given up so I expect a big improvement here.

6th Race
5 Secret Paranoia 2-1 (2nd place)
This one blew the door’s off the competition  winning by 10 in her last out but there is plenty of speed in here not sure she will get that easy lead. Still the one to beat based on last out.

6 Sierra Sunrise 6-1 (3rd place)
I really liked this one in last and she ran a dud so they have dropped her in class and a bounce back race puts her in the mix.

4 Timberlake Gage 12-1 (4th place)
Was claimed and then failed to fire at higher levels now drops will this be the turn-around or not?

7th Race
3 Crest Drive 7-2 (off the board)
2 straight front running wins at 2500 and then 3500 and now tries 5k has this guy reached his ceiling, I think there is more in the tank.

2 Doctor Bruce S 6-1 (4th place)
The 11-year-old is amazing and coming off yet another win. I just can’t keep him out of it plus Cruz is 2 for 2 on him and he will jump aboard again shooting for 3-3.

6 Golden Cowboy 5-2 (Winner!)
Collapses in class so it will be interesting how he handles it.

8th Race
8 Irish Swing 3-1 (2nd place)
This is a follow the jockey and Alex Cruz has been 2nd 3 times by just a neck on Seattle Smoke but he elects to get aboard Irish who is plummeting in class for the new connections who claimed him 2 back for 8 and now is running at 2500. I have to believe Cruz thinks this is his best chance so I will somewhat reluctantly follow.

10 Irish Terrier 10-1 (off the board)
This Irish runner actually did what the top pick s doing last out he dropped from 8k to 2500 and won so it will be an Irish show down.

1 Cat’s Touch 9-2 (Off the board)
This kitty has a hard time winning but hasn’t missed a superfecta in 5 starts this season with 2 2nds, 2 3rds and a 4th should be on the board.

9th Race
7 Norski 3-1 (4th place)
Norski will lay off and make a run at some speed in this race and Belvoir and Whitaker know how to get it done.

1 Bearcreek Mountain 8-1 (off-the-board)
The other Belvoir entry may be the lone legitimate speed. He may be able to pull off a front running stunner.

2 Vicente’s Shadow 7-2 (2nd place)
V-S should lay just behind and may have first run and if so may be tough to collar.

10th Race
2 La Waun 2-1
This guy is coming off a run in the Longacres Mile and returning to a much cozier spot and will have a large target on his back.

7 Legitimate Cause 7-2
Will sit just off what looks like a hearty pace and may have first run just missed in his last.

4 So Lucky 9-2
Back class and coming off a win but may get caught up in a speed duel.

11th Race
4 Salsa Verde 5-1 (3rd place)
Tough race to finish off a Pick 5 with a big carryover but Salsa has had several even attempts and now drops to the bottom should be a significant factor here.

3 Noumea 9-2 (2nd place)
Gets Leslie Mawing which makes this an SJC and coming off her best effort in a while so a step forward is more than possible.

8 Sassy Edie 3-1 (Winner!)
Last 3 starts 3rd, 2nd and 1st so no reason she won’t be in the mix again.

Larry’s Bets for Wednesday, 9/24

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$200 W (4) Bet: $200 Return: $480
$10 Super (4 with 1 with All with All) Bet: $60 Return: 0
$1 Pick 4 (1-4 with 1-2-4-5-7 with All with All) Bet: $420  Return: $633

2nd Race 
$50 WPS (5) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$1 Super (2-5-7 with 1-2-4-5-7 with 1-2-4-5-7 with All) Bet: $144 Return: 0

3rd Race 
$50 WPS (3) Bet: $150 Return: $1,130
$1 Super (3-7-9 with 3-7-9 with All with All) Bet: $252 Return: $1,450

4th Race
$50 WPS (4) Bet: $150  Return: $345
$1 Super (5-7 with 4-5-7 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: $196
$1 Pick 4 (5-7 with 2-5-7 with 4-5-6 with All) Bet: $144 Return: 0

5th Race
$1 Super (5-7-8 with 1-5-7-8 with All with All) Bet: $180  Return: $511.90
$50 WPS (7) Bet: $150 Return: $70
$50 W (5) Bet: $50 Return: $255

6th Race
$50 WPS (6) Bet: $150  Return:  $120
$50 W (4) Bet: $50 Return: 0
$1 Super (4-5-6 with 4-5-6-7 with All with All) Bet: $180 Result: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (4-5-6-7 with 1-2-3-4-6-7 with 1-5-7-8-10 with 1-2-3-7) Bet: $240 Return: 0

7th Race
$50 WP (2) Bet: $150  Return: 0
50-cent Pick 5 (1-2-3-4-6-7 with 1-2-7-8-10 with All with 2-4-5-7 with All) Bet: $4,320  Return: $1,297.65

8th Race 
$50 WPS (10) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$100 WP (8) Bet: $200 Return: $270
50-cent Super (8-10 with 1-5-7-8-9-10 with All with All)  Bet: $140  Return: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (8-10 with 1-2-7 with All with All) Bet: $168 Return: 0

9th Race 
$50 WPS (1) Bet: $150 Return: 0
20-cent Super (1-2-7 with 1-2-3-7 with All with All)  Bet: $189  Return: 0

10th Race
$50 WPS (7) Bet: $150 Result: $155
$200 W (2) Bet: $200 Result: $460
$2 Super (2-7 with 2-4-7 with All with All) Bet: $160 Return: $147.20
$20 DD (2-7 with All) Bet: $320   Return: $268
$20 DD (All with 4-8) Bet: $280   Return: $268

11th Race
$50 WPS (4) Bet: $150 Return: $75
$100 W (8) Bet: $100 Return: $530
$10 EX (4-8 with All) Bet: $280  Result: $166
$10 Super (3-4-8 with 3-4-8 with 3-4-8 with All) Bet: $240  Result: $968

Total Bets: $10,137
Total Cashed:  $9,796
Difference: -$341

________________________________________

DAY 27 (Wednesday)

Race 1
4 Balius 5-2 (2nd place)
Blaine Wright’s maiden looks to graduate today Matias should have him in good position late.

2 Majestic Cafe 7-2 (Winner!)
Been off since mid July but fired a bullet to indicate he should be ready.

5 Mark My Word 4-1 (off the board)
Firster with a solid work tab may be this good.

Race 2
5 Doubleshotofheaven 4-1 (off the board)
Belvoir dropped this one to the bottom and she ran well with a solid 2nd, Whitaker should have her out there winging it and will need to be caught.

6 She’s An Eagle 9-2 (3rd place)
Should sit just behind the front runner and should have first run if Heaven falters.

3 Pin Up Lady 7-2 (Winner!)
She takes the parachute drop in class and either wakes up or not.

Race 3
1 Molaf 2-1 (off the board)
3 3rds and a 4th so far this season at Emerald and maybe it’s his time.

7 Away He Goes 4-1 (4th place)
This one drops as low as he can go, wake up call ordered.

6 Coleinator 5-2 (2nd place)
Front speed signed on here and will be setting the pace can he make every pole a winning one? possibly.

Race 4
6 Iluvadacoast 12-1 (4th place)
The class level slide continues and a steep one here plus ran on a sloppy track last out maybe this is a price play catch.

1 Downthemiddle Dan 2-1 (off the board)
Another dropping steeply in class stopped after flashing some speed may be ready to fire with the 1st one under his belt.

5 He’s Bandido 5-1 (2nd place)
Another one of my loyalty issues let’s see if Bandido can make an impact.

Race 5
2 This Great Nation 4-1 (4th place)
T-G-N will sit further back of the speed and should be running late could run them all down.

3 Don’tbeshywillie 10-1 (off the board)
Maybe the true front speed and tries hard each time maybe he doesn’t stop this time.

8 Dreamcatcher 5-1 (2nd place)
Added after the late scratches could certainly be in the mix late.

Race 6
3 Brahms Forest 5-1 (off the board)
B-F likes to win every other race and loves to win especially at Emerald with a 6 for 13 clip in Auburn.

2 Mirror Image 5-2 (3rd place)
This one had never run a mile and 16th until last out and won so until he doesn’t you have to include him.

7 Awesome Slate 4-1 (off the board)
Hard not to like this one too if you like Mirror since he was just a head back. A fraction of a percent better run might put him in the Winners Circle.

Race 7
5 Fats Dominus 3-1 (off the board)
A wide open affair here but Fats has the only true speed so there will be a wall of horses just behind as they turn for home likely but will the wall have let Fats get away on his own too much? My hunch is it will be a heck of a race for 2nd, Fats gives him the slip and wins by daylight.

1 Pistol Power 6-1 (Winner!)
P-P won at 2,500, 2nd by a nose at 3,500 and a 3rd at $3,500 are this guy’s last 3 races so he can compete he may be leading the pack of those in the wall behind Fats and if Fats tires Power will be ready to pounce.

6 Lolly Express 6-1 (3rd place)
Why not pick the one that features the return of Leslie Mawing to Emerald? Plus Lolly drops a bit and also will be coming from off the pace.

Race 8
2 Semi Sweet 5-2 (2nd place)
Interesting Semi is the 2nd choice in the mornling line to Gazing. S-S has beaten Gazing 2 out of 3 races they have faced this season. I am not sure why that trend won’t continue. Semi also is familiar with the tote board as he is 10 of 16 in the money and at least 1 4th place finish so 11 of 16 for your superfecta bets.

3 Lady Campbell 8-1 (3rd place)
Ms Campbell won by 8+ lengths in her last out here at EmD and there doesn’t look like much speed in here. She does step up but if left alone on the lead she would be gone.

8 Gazing 2-1 (off the board)
I can not leave out Gazing she comes from the top owner and trainer and would be no surprise.

Race 9
3 Cancale 4-1 (off the board)
This Cooper entry has been rounding into form and now takes a big drop maiden class might be my best bet of the day. 

6 Secrets of My Soul 4-1 (Winner!)
This one has been off since last year and gets her first start of the year taking a big tumble in class. Plus I own a Soul.

1 Madison Anne 8-1 (off the board)
Anne ran a very even 3rd in last and I am rooting for Francisco Diaz-Lopez to get his 1st win of the year, heck his first 2nd. He has 2 3rds from 37 rides so he is due! To be fair his mounts probably average 30-1 or higher but one of his show finishes was on Anne in her last. Should get a good price here.

Larry’s Bets for Sunday, 9/23

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$75 WP (4) Bet: $150 Return: $82.50
$5 Super (2-4 with 2-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: $118.50
50-cent Pick 4 (2-4 with 1-3-5-6 with 1-2-6-7 with All) Bet: $128  Return: $746.90

2nd Race 
$50 WPS (5) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$1 Super (3-5-6 with 1-3-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $240 Return: $173.50

3rd Race 
$100 WP (1) Bet: $200 Return: 0
$2 Super (1-6 with 1-6-7 with All with All) Bet: $160 Return: 0

4th Race
$50 WPS (6) Bet: $150  Return: 0
50-cent Super (1-6 with All with All with All) Bet: $210 Return: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (All with 2-3-4-5-8 with 2-3-4-9 with 1-3-5 ) Bet: $240 Return: 0

5th Race
$50 WPS (3) Bet: $150 Return: 0
50-cent Pick 5 (2-3-5-8 with 2-3 with 1-5 with All with 1-3-9) Bet: $168  Return: $112.85

6th Race
50-cent Pick 4 (2-3-9 with 1-3-4-5-6 with 2-3-8 with All) Bet: $202.50  Return: 0
$100 WP (3) Bet: $200  Return: 0

7th Race
$100 WPS (1) Bet: $300 Return: $900

$100 W (5) Bets: $100 Return: 0
50-cent Super (1-5 with 1-3-5-6-7 with All with All) Bet: $224 Return: $567.30

8th Race 
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200 Return: $160
$20 DD (2 with All) Bet: $180 Return: 0
$20 DD (All with 3-6) Bet: $280 Return: $1,102

9th Race
$100 WPS (3) Bet: $300 Return: 0
$2 Super (3 with 1-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $252 Return: 0

Total Bets: $4,264.50
Total Cashed: $3,963.55
Difference: -$301

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