Emerald Downs: Larry’s Lucky Picks Week 13 (Friday/Sunday schedule)

paulb

9/20/2020

(Katlama, WA) **Change of plans for the second time. Races postponed for Wednesday and Thursday with Wednesday’s race card set to go on Friday and Thursday’s card now on Sunday, 1st race post time for both days is 2pm.

Larry the SportsCat

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $78,004
Amount Collected: $83,841
Balance: +$5,837

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
258 Top Picks: 59 win, 46 place, 31 shows, 30 4th (23% win; 53% in the money; 64% in Superfecta)
261 2nd Picks: 45 win, 45 place, 47 show, 31 4th (17% win, 52% in the money, 64% in Superfecta)
256 3rd Picks: 36 win, 43 place, 40 show, 25 4th (14% win, 46% in the money, 56% in Superfecta)
Top 3 Win: 54%

DAY 26 (Sunday)

Race 1
3 Shelby R 5-2 (4th place)
In a race where most are very familiar with each other Shelby has 2 3rds, a win and coming off yet another good effort running 2nd so no reason to think she is about to slow down.

2 Full Speed Ahead 2-1 (3rd place)
This one finished 3rd behind the top pick but is the M-L fav not sure why but if she turns the tables it won’t be the biggest shocker in the world.

4 Forty Knot Current 9-2 (off the board)
This lightly raced filly just snapper her maiden let’s see if she is getting on a roll or digress, 50/50 call on this one.

Race 2
6 Only the High Road 9-2 (off the board)
Connections had higher expectations of this one and after sub-par efforts they drop him to his lowest betting on the turn-around.

1 I Work for Carrots 9-5 (3rd place)
Carrots drops back to claiming and winning level so another trip to the Winners Circle is not out of the question.

5 Purely Political 2-1 (2nd place)
Shipper from NO Cal drops and looking for a spot to turn things around this might be the spot.

Race 3
5 Florista 5-2 (Winner!)
This gal ships in from No Cal for McCanna but has been around the track several times. Wake up call here and betting she answers the bell.

6 Indian Power 4-1 (off the board)
An SJC from an apprentice to the 2nd leading rider and drops in class. Looking for a win this season it could be here.

3 Bishops of Compton 9-2 (2nd place)
Another looking for a spot to turn things around and a hungry jock gets on and he is also heating up.

Race 4
5 Little Dancer 5-2 (Winner!)
Loyalty, Loyalty, Loyalty I just can’t give up on this one 3 3rds and a 4th but not drops let’s see if it put this one up on top of the finish list.

3 Jerre to Carrie 10-1 (Scratched) Replaced by 6 Beau Rocket (Off the Board)
Drops and she ran even off a lay-off for a 4th place finish with expected improvement could be a shot worth taking.

4 Classic Leah 7-2 (3rd place)
Early speed from this one and will be need to be caught could last.

Race 5
4 Jacana 5-1 (2nd place)
Has been off since early August after 3 solid efforts 2 3rds and a 4th. A little rest and has been working regularly for return actually LOVE this one here.

1 Itsallinthenotes 7-2 (Scratched) Replaced with 7 Suddenly Winning (3rd place)
Puhich, DeDomenico, 1st time starter….sold!

2 She Owns the Paynt 8-5 (Winner!)
Concerned of being overbet after showing some speed in the Oaks but ultimately finished 24 lengths behind.

Race 6
4 Always Working 4-1 (2nd place)
Rosales/C Fig combo is always attractive and they should get it done today with the drop in cl;ass as well.

5 Shamisen 5-2 (3rd place)
After 1 ride off back to Juan G who knows this guy pretty well should be in the mix.

2 Sparkling Lute 6-1 (off the board)
Lightly raced coming off a lay-off and a bullet this one should be ready to fire.

Race 7
3 Port Lions 9-5 (Winner!)
Huge drop in class for solid connections a bit concerning with the plunge in class but if she gets taken Belvoir will want to double dip with the win check and the claim check.

1 Bellamagic 3-1 (off the board)
Been very consistent with 5 starts this year and 4 in the top 4 finishes but has yet to win. Might be the night,

6 Datcat 20-1 (off the board)
Very ambitious jump after maiden win now back to reality 20-1 you might just catch a heck of a price here.

Race 8
2 Vinny from Dixie 4-1 (2nd place)
After crushing fields in 2 straight races Vinny stepped up to run in the Derby and ran a very credible 5th place. Vinny drops back to winning level and could bounce right back.

5 Fantastic Day 2-1 (Winner!)
Ran just ahead of Vinny in the Derby so another effort like that puts him right there at the end.

1 Lolo Paniolo 7-2 (4th place)
Also ran in the Derby but Vinny out finished him but get Matias back to ride who won on him at 31-1.

Race 9
7 Perfect Blossom 8-1 (off the board)
Ran twice and good efforts with a 2nd and a 4th and then a lay-off. She has been working and a very solid work in last timed one on Sept 9 looks like she is ready to roll on the comeback.

2 Magical Spell 4-1 (3rd place)
The Cooper’s send this gal out after giving her a rest after the Boeing and now sending her out in an allowance where she can make an impact. Could be tough here.

5 Spot On 5-2 (2nd place)
Top Owner, Trainer and top stakes rider can never be overlooked.

Race 10
7 Lobaness 7-2 (Winner!)
Coming off a win no question could repeat with Eddie M  on board.

4 Azadi 5-2 (4th place)
Plunges in class always has the question of why if simply trying to find a spot to win let’s see if Azadi is up for it.

3 Tiger On Your Six 4-1 (2nd place)
This fella has been 1st or 2nd in his last 5 races when a horse is on a roll like that I like to “roll” with him.

Larry’s Bets for Sunday, 9/20

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$75 WP (3) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$1 Super (2-3-4 with 2-3-4 with All with All) Bet: $72 Return: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (All with All with 3-5-6 with 3-4-5) Bet: $135  Return: $152.15

2nd Race 
$50 WPS (6) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$1 Super (1-5-6 with 1-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $72 Return: 0

3rd Race 
$50 WPS (5) Bet: $150 Return: $300
$1 Super (3-5-6 with 3-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $120 Return: $145.30

4th Race
$50 WPS (5) Bet: $150  Return: $80
$4 Super (5 with 1-3-6 with All with All) Bet: $144 Return: $644.40

5th Race
$50 WPS (4) Bet: $150 Return: $132.50
50-cent Pick 4 (2 with 2-4-5 with 1-2-3-8 with 1-2-5) Bet: $18 Return: 0

6th Race
50-cent Pick 5 (All with 1-2-3-8 with 1-2-5 with 1-2-5-7 with 3-4-7) Bet: $504  Return: $546.80
$50 WPS (4) Bet: $150  Return: $270

7th Race
$50 WPS (6) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$1 Pick 4 (1-3 with All with 1-2-5-7 with All) Bet: $192 Return: $179.60

8th Race 
$50 WPS (2) Bet: $150 Return: $60
$1 Super (1-2-5 with 1-2-5 with All with All)  Bet: $120  Return: 0

9th Race
$50 WPS (7) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$10 DD (2-5-7 with All) Bet: $240   Return: 0

$10 DD (All with 3-4-7) Bet: $210 Return: $205

10th Race
$200 P (3) Bet: $200 Result: $560

$2 Super (3-4-7 with 3-4-7 with All with All) Bet: $180 Result: $1,548.60

Total Bets: $3,737
Total Cashed: $4,824
Difference: +$1,088

___________________________________________

DAY 25 (Friday)

Race 1
6 Sovereign Nation 6-1 (Off the Board)
Front speed and will need to be caught and out of 5 lifetime races all this summer 2 places and a win so has shown he can hang on.

5 Live a Good Life 3-1 (3rd place)
Parachutes down the class ladder with Roslaes and C-Fig teaming up should be tough.

4 Celturian 5-2 (4th placed)
Also a dropper from the Cooper’s would be no surprise.

Race 2
3 Smoothee Lee 3-1 (4th place)
Can lay just off a likely contested pace in a very tight race any of these could win and the All button is what I will be pressing in my pick 4.

5 Guardingthemoney 7-2 (2nd place)
Also can lay off the pace and will surprise when he fires.

1 Mr Bingley 10-1 (3rd place)
Jennifer Whitaker just won her 500th race at Emerald on one Mr Bingley and I just like this guy.

Race 3
7 Lolly Express 7-2 (Scratched) Replaced with 3 Zippin Wine (off the board)
Drops to the bottom looking for that win and Jake Samuels is an aggressive rider who could get this done.

4 Old School Ike 5-2 (2nd place)
After 2 duds as the favorite and 2nd favorite going back to the rider who got closest to the Winners circle with Javier Matias aboard would not be a stunner if Javier gets it done.

2 Bernie 6-1 (Winner!)
Been a disappointment all year as far as the win column can Bernie finally get it done today?

Race 4
7 Ronton 4-1 (2nd place)
Shipped in quite some time ago and has been working regularly and looks ready at first asking here.

4 Johnny Five 5-1 (3rd place)
Been sticking with this guy gonna try one more time and see if he finally fires.

1 Empire Ruler 15-1 (Off the Board)
Back to back show finishes another step up and could be a a good price.

Race 5
5 Graycaster 4-1 (2nd place)
Comes off a solid 2nd and solid connections and has been working toward this race when he finally gets it done.

4 No Harbor in Sight 9-5 (Winner!)
Lucarrelli sends out this one and a win would not be surprising but gonna try to beat him.

7 Its Allabout Jerry 6-1 (4th place)
Loved this one in last  but Jerry ran a dud so this is the key race is he bouncing back or trailing off?

Race 6
1 Jacomina 4-1 (off the board)
From the powerful Blaine Wright barn and top rider Alex Cruz has been rounding this one into racing form looks like graduation day to me.

3 Kerralia 3-1 (Winner!)
Very nice run in career debut a similar run may be enough.

8 Curious Sensation 5-1 (Scratched) Replaced with 4 Unlimiteddataplan (3rd place)
Off slow and never ran a step in career debut but was bet at 6-1 in a 10 horse field so well backed. Come from Lucarelli, Eddie M up so worth a 2nd chance.

Race 7
5 Friendswithbourban 4-1 (Scratched) Replaced by 3 You Go Girl (Winner!)
Won easily and sports a win and a 2nd career record but Gary Wales chooses to ride Known Value. I think Wales chose incorrectly and Alex Anaya will be the better for his choice.

4 Known Value 3-1 (2nd place)
In case Wales knows what he’s doing afterall he has ridden this one 5 times with 3 places and a win.

2 Lucky Carlene 6-1 (4th place)
The 2nd Joe Toye entry he has our top pick as well plus Carlene is one of my favorite country songs by Phil Vasser.

Race 8
2 National Browser 7-2 (3rd place)
Front speed from the inside can be very dangerous and she has placed twice this season and won with A-A aboard. Public has yet to buy in totally with 7-2, 4-1 and 5-1, maybe a price here.

4 Stratus Bird 8-5 (Off the Board)
This one blew away the field by 13 lengths a very impressive run but has never done something like this before so was it her or who she was running against. I am guessing her  competition so I will try to beat an 8-5 shot in this slot.

5 Fiery Cause 4-1 (Winner!)
Coming off a big win and maybe just has started to figure this game out.

Race 9
7 Dutton 6-5 (Winner!)
You hope you can get 6-5 on Dutton who is a monster should win by minimum 5 lengths, Dutton is the next superstar from Rising Star Stables and Howard Belvoir. Easiest pick of the day you just aren’t going to get much of a price. Superfecta might be your best chance for some upsets at 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

8 Zeynep 5-1 (4th place)
Won career debut at Emerald in July then shipped to GG where he ran a credible 4th less than 2 lengths behind in a field of 6 and was 14-1. If Dutton stumbles this one I think is the one to step up.

5 John’s On Point 7-2 (3rd place)
Won impressively in career debut at 11-1 but then struggled mightily against Dutton in the Lads Stakes finishing 8th 32 lengths behind.

Race 10
9 Stanley’s Wave 3-1 (2nd place)
Solid effort in last and now tumbles in class to give him a clear advantage, lets now see if it does.

8 Dropyourbuffs 7-2 (3rd place)
This Survivor took a similar drop in class as my top pick in last and went from 8th to 2nd. Another forward step puts this one in the mix.

4 Premier League 5-2 (Winner!)
This one ships in from So Cal but has not even had a workout over the Auburn oval  which always concerns me especially with horses at this level.

Larry’s Bets for Wednesday, 9/18

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget.)

1st Race
$50 WPS (6) Bet: $150 Return: 0
$2 Super (4-5-6 with 4-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $144 Return: 0
50-cent Pick 4 (1-4-5-6 with All with All with 3-4-5-6-7) Bet: $250  Return: 0

2nd Race 
$50 WPS (1) Bet: $150 Return: $85
$3 Super (1-3 with All with All with All) Bet: $144 Return: $198.60

3rd Race 
$50 WPS (4) Bet: $150 Return: $120
$5 Super (4 with 2-3 with All with All) Bet: $60 Return: 0

4th Race
$50 WPS (7) Bet: $150  Return: $185
$1 Super (7 with 3-4-5-6 with All with All) Bet: $80 Return: 0

5th Race
$50 WPS (5) Bet: $150 Return: $240
50-cent Pick 4 (All with 1-3-4 with All with All) Bet: $340.00 Return: $50.90

6th Race
50-cent Pick 5 (1-3-4 with All with All with 7 with All) Bet: $405  Return: $46.20
$50 WPS (3) Bet: $150  Return: $315

7th Race
$1 Pick 4 (All with All with 7 with All) Bet: $135 Return: $13.15

8th Race 
$50 WPS (2) Bet: $150 Return: $160
$2 Super (2-5 with All with All with All)  Bet: $240  Return: $997.40

9th Race
$20 DD (7 with All) Bet: $180   Return: $72
$30 DD (7 with 4-8-9) Bet: $90  Return: $108
$10 DD (4-9 with All) Bet: $160 Return: 0

10th Race
$75 WP (4) Bet: $150 Result: $285

$10 EX (4-9 with All) Bet: $160  Result: $53
$5 Super (4-8-9 with 4-8-9 with 4-8-9 with All) Bet: $180 Result: $691.50

Total Bets: $3,768
Total Cashed: $3,620.75
Difference: -$147.25

 

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