WEEK 5 LARRY’S LUCKY PICKS AT EMERALD DOWNS

paulb

Picks for 7/22 and 7/23/2020
Larry’s Lucky Picks Week 5

Larry the SportsCat

(Katlama, WA) Bounced back day and Juan Gutierrez still looking for career win #2,000. Let’s get to it!

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $13,357.90
Amount Collected: $13,386.70
Balance: +$28.80

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
96 Top Picks: 24 win, 13 place, 12 shows, 11 4th (25% win; 51% in the money; 63% in Superfecta)
98 2nd Picks: 14 win, 18 place, 11 show, 14 4th (14% win, 44% in the money, 58% in Superfecta)
99 3rd Picks: 11 win, 13 place, 13 show, 11 4th (11% win, 37% in the money, 48% in Superfecta
                               Top 3 Win: 51%

 

DAY 10

Race 1

2 Little Dancer 9-5 (3rd Place)
L-D had a solid first out can be close to the pace as she stretches out to a mile should be cranked up and ready to go.

6 Semi Sweet 7-2 (Winner!)
Juan Gutierrez has 8 tries to get #2,000 today and would love to get it in this race. Sweet shippin in from SoCal over 50% in the money so would not be a surprise but may need a trip over the surface first.

3 Shoe Game 6-1 (4th Place)
6 career wins and half of them at the mile distance only 2nd start at EmD coming off a 2nd place finish should be closing late.

Race 2

6 Dudley Studley 3-1 (2nd Place)
Lots of speed in this race think Duds can lay just off and could get first run expect him to be right there at the end.

8 Mr Talahashi 6-1 (Winner!)
This is one that will relish a front end scramble and if they get crazy on the lead Mr could run them all down.

3 Royal Bar 7-2 (3rd Place)
Cerapio jumps off one in this race he just won on to take the call on this shipper from Grants Pass. Does he know something we don’t?

Race 3

4 Daffodil Sweet (Winner!)
This 3-year-old filly is 1-1 as she destroyed a maiden special weight winning by 8+ lengths at 17-1 in her only career start. Juan Gutierrez will be juiced to get win 2,000 right here if he is still seeking it.

3 Magical Spell 5-1 (2nd Place)
This one totally disappointed and did not run a step in seasonal debut as the overwhelming favorite. This is rare coming out of the Copperf barn expect a big time turnaround here.

2 For You Only 9-5 (3rd Place)
Concerned this one will be over bet off solid opening run for a 2nd place finish. Solid connections with Whitaker and Belvoir so there is a reason for the M-L fav status.

Race 4

3 Live a Good Life 7-2 (Winner!)
This is an “all” race for your Pick 4 so I will go with a 1st time starter. He has a workout under his belt over the local surface doesn’t look like it will take a lot to top this bunch.

1 He’s Bandido 20-1 (3rd Place)
Showed speed in last out but stopped may last longer this time.

5 Flat Out Feisty 5-1 (Off the Board)
Will go with the other 1st time starter and take my chances with the unknown because the known is pretty ugly.

Race 5

9 In the Vault 3-1 (Scratched)
This race is the opposite of the 4th race in a mostly 1st time starter maiden special event but Vault is one that has run with an impressive 2nd place run at 6-1. Gets the nod here.

3 Scarrazano 9-2 (Off the Board)
This one is with solid ownership with the Hansen’s from the powerful Blaine Wright barn and Guti on board this 1ster.

10 Street Shadow 5-1 (2nd Place)
Frank Lucarelli has 2 in here the top pick and this one think he will be tough with both of these. Vault has the 1 race experience while Shadow checks in with a very stead work tab looks ready to fire first time off the bench.

Race 6

4 Dyf 5-2 (3rd Place)
Have to agree if this one can repeat his performance from July 8 he will likely top the Tote Board as he just missed in seasonal debut by a neck.

1 Sleet Afleet 8-1 (Off the Board)
I realize this one doesn’t have the most stellar of races over the past 6 races with a 2nd, a 3rd two 7th place finishes and in his 2020 opener 12th  14 lengths behind. But now takes a massive class drop. Comes from the Belvoir barn who doesn’t regularly place his horses in wrong positions and would not be surprised to see a massive turn-around here.

5 Front Row Friends 7-2 (Off the Board)
Guti aboard here with another sold chance for a win. Ran an even 3rd in opener and any improvement could give him the win.

Race 7

9 Tomorrow’s Mine 5-2 (Winner!)
T-M fired off the bench with a 2nd place finish and was getting to the winner in the end and now gets another 1/2 furlong to work with with Wales aboard likely the favorite in the race.

5 Tiger Mom 3-1 (Off the Board)
This race is going to all chalk or a bunch of prices are going to swoop in and blow up the board. Here I am playing follow the jockey in Cerapio as he jumps off Cate’s Gold the 5-1 3rd choice after booting her home with a 19-1 win on day 2 but ran a clunker last out at 7-2. C-Fig takes the ride on this shipper for seasoned trainer Terry Gillihan so I am following too.

1 Maika 15-1 (3rd Place)
Gonna go with this one as my longshot as Juan takes the call. Coming off a dismal effort after running a good 3rd in season debut and now we have a SJC (Significant Jockey Change) to the 2nd all-time rider in Emerald history if there is going to be a surprise I think it’s this one.

8th Race

2 Aero Street 4-1 (Winner!)
Aero Street must have some kind of connection with trainer Frank Lucarelli prior to Luke took over this one had placed 8th, 6th, 5th, 7th and 7th. 1 2nd to last and 3 last place finishes. Since then Lucarelli took him Golden Gate in March and has ripped off a win, (2) seconds and a show, 4-4 in the money. Now he shifts to the dirt of Emerald from the Tapeta of GG but think Lucarelli might know what he’s doing.

7 Deckload 9-2 (4th Place)
This one had his first run over the surface with decent backing at 3-1 but was lackluster now drops in class and a wake-up call is not out of the question.

8 Rough Road 8-1 (Off the Board)
Lightly raced 5 year-old broke his maiden last out in spectacular fashion with a 6 length win. Early speed makes this one a contender.

9th Race

8 RB Eye 6-1 (Off the Board)
RBI is making his 3rd start off the bench and has come from last place in both races for a 4th and then a 3rd. Lots of pace in this one, getting 6 and half furlongs will have the distance and speed to run out look for RBI to roll over the top.

2 Shamisen 3-1 (4th Place)
Likely part of the pace scenario but seems to be the one who can sit just off and get first run.

4 Wilson to Lockett 10-1 (3rd Place)
Let’s look for the long bomb here and with an even effort in debut will use in my tri’s and super’s.

10th Race

10 Stay in Grace 6-1 (2nd Place)
Grace was a win machine early in her career winning 7 of 12 races. Last 5 tho have fallenh off the cliff. She has one run for 4th in seasonal debut so maybe she is getting ready to get back on this track.

7 Stratus Bird 9-2 (Off the Board)
Off since March but tons of speed so will be in the race to start question is will she have enough air in her off the bench.

2 Sierra Sunrise 8-1 (3rd Place)
Like the rider here Patrick Henry an under rated pilot and got his first win yesterday can win this one likely at a bit of a price.

11th Race

8 Cooler Than You 3-1(Winner but then DQ’d on a bad call)
Going with the lightly raced starters here over those who have struggled to find that win. Cooler coming off the best last out with a 2nd place finish on July 9th here at Emerald.

1 Army King 4-1 (Off the Board)
Only 2 races and disappointing results with a 6th and 8th place finish but takes a tumble in class let’s see if that wakes up this colt.

3 Plan in the Makin 5-1 (Off the Board)
Split the field in first out this year a little improvement gets him on the board.

Larry’s Picks for Thursday, 7/16

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget for example the Superfecta bet Larry made in the 1st race has a 10-cent minimum, he chose to bet $1 minimum for a total cost of $48. the 10-cent minimum would cost $4.80)

1st Race
50-cent Pick 4 (2-6 with 3-6-8 with 2-3-4 with All) Bet: $81 Return: $157.95
$50 Win 6 Bet: $50 Return: $385
$10 Ex Box (2 with All) Bet: $100 Return: 0

2nd Race
50-cent Super (3-6-8 with 3-6-8 with All with All) $90 Return: $154.95
$50 Win (8) Bet: $50 Return: $155

3rd Race
$2 Pick 3 (4 with All with 3-4-6-9-10) Bet: $45 Return: $58.40
$100 WP (4) Bet: $200 Return: $280

4th Race
50-cent Pick 4 (All with 1-3-10 with 1-4-5 with 1-5-9) Bet: $121.50 Return: $0
$1 Super (1-3-5 with 1-3-5-9 with 1-3-5-9 with All) Bet: $90 Return: $312.60

5th Race
$1 Tri (3-10 with 1-3-4-6-8-10 with All) Bet: $60 Return: $0
$40 Win (3) Bet: $40 Return: $0
$40 WPS (10) Bet: $120 Return: $128

6th
50-cent Super (1-4-5 with 1-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $90 Return: $0
$25 Win (5) Bet: $25 Return: $0
50-cent Pick 4 (1-4-5 with 1-5-7-9 with 2-7-8 with All) Bet: $144 Return: $0

7th Race
50-cent Pick 5 (1-5-9 with 2-7-8 with 2-4-8 with 2-7-10 with 1-3-8) Bet: $121.50 Return: $0
$25 Win (1) Bet: $25 Return: $0
$60 WP (9) Bet: $120 Return: $295

8th Race
50-cent Pick 4 (All with 2-8 with 2-7-10 with All) $243 Return: $0
50-cent Superfecta (2-7-8 with 2-7-8 with All with All) Bet: $126 Return: $0
$100 WP (2) Bet: $200 Return: $1,300

9th Race
$2 Pick 3 (2-4-8 with 2-7-10 with All) Bet: $81 Return: $0
$50 Win (2) Bet: $50 Return: $0
$50 WPS (8) Bet: $150 Return: $0

10th Race
$10 DD (2-7-10 with 1-4-8) Bet: $90 Return: $0
$5 DD (10 with All) Bet: $45 Return: $0
$50 WPS (10) Bet: $150 Return: $235

11th Race
50-cent Super (8 with 1-2-3-4-8 with All with All) Bet: $105 Return: $0
$100 WP (8) Bet: $200 Return: $0

Total Bets: $2,918.80
Total Cashed: $3,461.90
Difference: +$543.10

_____________________________________________________________

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $8,190.50
Amount Collected: $8,333.85
Balance: +$143.35

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
76 Top Picks: 17 win, 11 place, 8 shows, 9 4th (22% win; 47% in the money; 59% in Superfecta)
77 2nd Picks: 12 win, 16 place, 14 show, 10 4th (16% win, 55% in the money, 68% in Superfecta)
78 3rd Picks: 10 win, 10 place, 7 show, 9 4th (13% win, 35% in the money, 46% in Superfecta
Top 3 Win: 51%

 

DAY 9

Race 1

5 Secret Paranoia 7-2 (Winner!)
Even effort in first lap around the Emerald dirt was claimed from top trainer Lucarelli barn. But Cerapio takes the call for Jorge Rosales let’s see if S-P can reward those backing her this time as she disappointed as the favorite in her first try.

4 Lucille 4-1 (4th Place)
Another one claimed out of their last race this one goes from the 2nd all-time Emerald trainer Tim McCanna to the Dale Koler barn. Lucille was a quarter length in front of my top pick and Juan Gutierrez goes after win #2,000 would be no surprise.

3 Emma’s a Beast 5-1 (2nd Place)
Let’s round out the first race with another just claimed one and again from Lucarelli but in this case they paid 8k and drop her into a 5k race and Alex Cruz jumps off the 2 horse to take this call as well. A little concerned why the drop in price after the claim.

Race 2

3 West Coast Indy 3-1 (Winner!)
W-C-I woke up in last and gets 3rd start off the bench should be primed for one of his favorite distances with 7 wins from 33 stats and 17 of 33 in the money.

1 Doctor Bruce S 5-2 (4th Place)
After roaring past most of the field to win in his last he is 0-8 at this distance. Thinking Juan Guti will not tag #2,000 on this one if history repeats.

7 If You Want It 5-1 (3rd Place)
These types have been popping up and hitting the board. I mean those that seemingly don’t look like they are ready, this one finished last in 1st out off the lay-off but was just 5 lengths back. Don’t be surprised if ready for big effort.

Race 3

6 General Mach Four 3-1 (Off the Board)
The General is shipping in from Grants Pass but is no stranger to EmD. He also likes to win and finish in the top 3 with 12 wins and 23 in the money finishes from 35 lifetime starts including 5 wins and 2 places from 9 Emerald Downs starts so he loves to win here.

1 Guarding the Money 4-1 (Off the Board)
Juan Gutierrez just might get his 2,000th win on this one if doesn’t get it in the first 2 races. I have been on this horse for both starts but finished up with a 5th and 4th. Guti also rode the M-L fav in this one Redrock Trail but he sticks here so I will follow him.

4 Redrock Trail 5-2 (Off the Board)
Had the lead to the top of the stretch and failed to hold finishing 3rd 5 lengths back. Guti jumps ship but the more than capable Gary Wales may get him to last.

Race 4

6 Stanley’s Wave 6-1 (Off the Board)
This is where I think #2,000 comes for Juan and you may think I am nuts but this one had his one out ran 4th 12 lengths back but the winner won by 9. Now gets another 1/2 furlong and drops from 25k-15k. The drop with expected improvement equals victory!

7 Majestic Cafe 5-2 (Off the Board)
This one just missed on 2nd out but now is he setting up for a bounce? Got that 2nd by a head on the 8th may be enough time off Figs back up to try again.

4 Fireball Red 7-2 (Off the Board)
Red was 2 lengths behind Cafe in his 1st out he may be wound tight and ready to fire in this spot with Mr Wales aboard certainly a must in your Jackpot 7 ticket.

Race 5

1 Azadi 6-1 (Winner!)
Azadi a lightly raced 3-year-old gets in 6 pounds under most of these and won at first asking last year then finished 6th in a 15k claimer. First out ran 6th again but just 3 and half out 15k now drops to 5k but faces older.

8 Coleinator 6-1 (Off the Board)
Another lightly raced lifetime winner of 1that was thought enough of to run at Santa Anita and Los Al before coming home to the place he won his only race in 6 starts.

4 Ri` Pin Snap 5-2 (Off the Board)
Coming off an upset neck win at 16-1 now faces winners for the first time. Not much speed may have the front end all to himself but after a horrendous record and a win from nowhere in last not sure which side of the coin this will land on, the winning side or back to the same old form?

Race 6

9 Trust N Liberty 5-1 (4th Place)
If Guti doesn’t have #2,000 yet this may be the next best chance. He jumps on as Wales goes to the M-L fav. This one rounding into form and can sit just behind the front runners and 3rd shot off the bench should be his best.

5 Cats Gulch 12-1 (Off the Board)
Like his last out although tired to 4th place. Expect a similar run and not a ton of speed signed on here so could be tough to pass.

6 Dustin’s Passion 8-1 (2nd Place)
This one loves to come in 3rd place. Lifetime coming into this season he was 5-7-19! In his first out this year I singled him to run 3rd in a Superfecta and HIT! Yes his first out he finished 3rd so now he has 20 3rd place finishes from 48 career starts.

Race 7

9 Dazzling Debbie 7-2 (Off the Board)
Deb went off at 1-1 in her first out this year and just missed by a head settling for 2nd. Comes back in this one as a luke-warm 7-2 favorite. I don’t think there is a chance in hell you get 7-2 she has 3 lifetime starts, a win and 2 places. Clear favorite.

11 Linchpin Jewel 5-1 (Off the Board)
Had this one last out at 9-1 and ran 2nd. Coming into 3rd time off the bench with some momentum not hard to see picking up the win.

2 Somethin’boutIris 4-1 (Winner)
A very good effort off the bench after almost a year off. Alex Cruz is off to a fast start here at EmD and will be tough here for sure.

Race 8

10 Gentle Prince 6-1 (Off the Board)
Playing follow the jockey, Javier Matias rode both this one and the 7 Old School Ike and both from the Lucarelli barn. I assume since he ran 2nd on Ike and 3rd on Prince he had his choice and stuck with Prince and so will I.

1 Indygo Bo 6-1 (Off the Board)
Speed and the rail will put this one in contention early can he relax a little and save some for the end we shall see.

7 Old School Ike 5-1 (Off the Board)
Gonna take the other Lucarelli horse in this one no reason he can’t find his way into the Winner’s Circle and even though Matias took off he is in the capable hands of Mr Wales.

Race 9

3 So Lucky 5-1 (3rd Place)
This one at one point beat a potential Kentucky Derby horse and he popped and stopped oin his seasonal debut believe Jennifer will have him out on the lead by himself and will not stop this time.

6 Mixo 4-1 (Off the Board)
Mixo doesn’t win alot but 19 of 33 in the money you better use him in your Tri’s and Supers.

2 Pulpits Power 9-2 (4th Place)
The other front speed horse who may find himself out on the lead alone if Lucky doesn’t break I just think a front speeder is gonna be tough in this one.

Race 10

6 Dragon Lady 5-2 (3rd Place)
If Juan Gutierrez is still looking for win 2,000 in this race he is on the M-L fav and will get it here. My thought is this will likely be win #2,002. I’m on the Juan express!

10 On Your Toes 5-1 (2nd Place)
Has run twice and finished 4th in both but last time had the lead in the stretch and failed to last. With races under her belt she may pop here and get her first career win.

2 Trickey Dahling 20-1 (Off the Board)
Let’s take a shot here in the get-away race. Ran 5th on July 8th just 5 lengths back and Alex Anaya knows how to bring in horses with a load of odds.

 

Larry’s Picks for Thursday, 7/16

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget for example the Superfecta bet Larry made in the 1st race has a 10-cent minimum, he chose to bet $1 minimum for a total cost of $48. the 10-cent minimum would cost $4.80)

1st Race
$1 Pick 4 (3-4-5 with 3-7 with All with 4-6-7) Bet: $126 Return:0
50-cent Super (3-4-5 with 3-4-5 with All with All) Bet: $60 Return: $18.25
$25 Win (4) Bet: $25 Return: 0

2nd Race
$1 Pick 3 (3 with All with All) Bet: $56 Return: $252.70
$25 Win (1) Bet: $25 Return: 0
$100 WP (3) Bet: $100 Return: $520

3rd Race
$1 Tri (1-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $90 Return: 0
50-cent Super (1-4-6 with 1-4-6 with All with All) Bet: $60 Return: 0
$10 Ex (6 with All) Bet: $60 Return: 0
$25 WPS (1) Bet: $75 Return:0

4th Race
20-cent Pick 7 (4-6-7 with 1-8 with 5-9 with 2-9-11 with 1-7-10 with 2-3-6 with 6-10) Bet: $129.60 Result: 0
50-cent Super (4-6-7 with 4-6-7 with All with All) Bet: $90 Return: 0
$25 Win (6) Bet: $25 Return: 0

5th Race
50-cent Pick 4 (All with All with 9 with 1-7-10) Bet: $120 Result: 0
$25 Win (2) Bet: $25 Return: 0
$50 WPS (1) Bet: $150 Return: $760

6th Race
50-cent Pick 5 (All with 9 with All with 2-3 with 6-10) Bet: $200 Result: 0
50-cent Tri (All-with All with 6) Bet: $36 Result: 0
$25 Win (9) Bet: $25 Result: 0
$40 WPS (5) Bet: $120 Result: 0

7th Race
$1 Pick 4 (9-11 with 1-7-10 with 2-3 with All) Bet: $132 Result: 0
$5 Pick 3 (9 with 1-7-10 with 2-3) Bet: $30 Result: 0
$100WP (9) Bet: $200 Result: 0

8th Race
$1 Pick 3 (All with 2-3 with 2-3-4-6-10) Bet: $90 Result: 0
50-cent Super (7-10 with 1-7-8-10 with 1-3-6-7-8-10 with All) Bet: $84 Result: 0
$25 Win (1) Bet: $25 Result: 0
$25 WPD (10) Bet: $75 Result: 0

9th Race
$20 DD (2-3 with 6-10) Bet: $80 Result: 0
$5 DD (2-3 with All) Bet: $90 Result: 0
$25 Win (8) Bet: $25 Result: 0

10th Race
50-cent Super (6 with 2-3-4-5-6-10 with All with All) Bet: $126 Result: 0
$25 WPS (6) Bet: $75 Result: $40

Total Bets: $2,248.60
Total Cashed: $1,590.95
Difference: -$657.65

______________________________________________________________

 

www.elisportsnetgwork.com

Next Post

2000! Jockey Juan Gutierrez Wins a Ton!; Plus Re-capping the first 5 Weeks

7/23/20 (Auburn, WA) #2000! Jockey Juan Gutierrez recorded his 2,000th career win on Thursday evening at Emerald Downs when he guided Semi Sweet to victory with a nice move from off the pace up the rail. Gutierrez was relieved to get it done early as he had 10 rides on […]
WordPress Image Lightbox