WEEK 4 LARRY’S LUCKY PICKS AT EMERALD DOWNS

paulb

Picks for 7/15 and 7/16/2020
Larry’s Lucky Picks Week 4

Larry the SportsCat

(Katlama, WA) Better than Wednesday but still lost a bit on the good side I am still a tiny bit profitable.

Larry’s Season Total Bets
Total Bet: $8,190.50
Amount Collected: $8,333.85
Balance: +$143.35

Picks Seasonal Re-Cap:
76 Top Picks: 17 win, 11 place, 8 shows, 9 4th (22% win; 47% in the money; 59% in Superfecta)
77 2nd Picks: 12 win, 16 place, 14 show, 10 4th (16% win, 55% in the money, 68% in Superfecta)
78 3rd Picks: 10 win, 10 place, 7 show, 9 4th (13% win, 35% in the money, 46% in Superfecta
Top 3 Win: 52%

 

DAY 8

Race 1

6 Zanab 6-1 (3rd Place)
“Z” had a run over the track on Day 2 and made a little move and finished a couple lengths back but with a little improvement may just finish the job today.

3 A Filly Can Dream 7-2 (Off the Board)
Speed here if she breaks and can control the pace they will have a hard time catching her.

4 Perfect Promise 5-2 (Winner)
Looks like she can sit or go to the lead if Filly doesn’t for some reason some options on the front end for Mr Gutierrez.

Race 2

4 Why Are U So Sweet 4-1 (2nd Place)
This one had a very solid effort in 1st time out and now gets an extra half furlong to finish the job.

7 Just Kathy 8-1 (4th Place)
Maybe is the speed of the speed gonna take a shot that she can get the lead and let’s see how far she can last.

1 Dark Suspicion 9-2 (Off the Board)
Has had a run so 2nd out and likely will have to hustle from the rail, Gary Wales takes the call as well.

Race 3

2 Deputy’s Command 7-2 (3rd Place)
Let’s see if history repeats as Gary Wales takes the ride and won in his debut last year will Deputy do it again? I think a good shot.

4 Banze No Oeste 3-1 (2nd Place)
Ships in from Grants Pass but this one loves to hit the board. Last 6 races 4 places and 2 shows the downside…no wins but I like horses that are always near the money.

1 Oldtimers Vision 10-1 (4th Place)
This one is my longshot and definitely will use him in the Tri’s and Super’s.

Race 4

4 She Owns the Paynt 5-2 (2nd Place)
I had this one in her first out and she ran a credible 2nd. Any improvement and she will be tough to top.

1 Chattin with Jenny 15-1 (Scratched)
Ships in from Phoenix and tho 0-16 13 of the 16 finishes are 2nd, 3rd or 4th so a must in the tri and super and maybe today is finally graduation day.

6 Suddenly Winning 6-1 (Off the Board)
The Cooper’s can get a 1st time starter ready so in a dart board race like this would be no surprise.

(Added #5 Cascade Dancer to Superfecta replacing Chattin with Jenny)

Race 5

3 Brett 5-2 (Off the Board)
7th start looking for his first win and comes off a very good effort in 2020 opener at EmD similar effort likely good enough.

8 Sherm 4-1 (Off the Board)
Continuing my selection of 1-syllable people names plus Sherm had a useful opener with likely improvement will put ol Sherm in the mix.

5 My First Trip 12-1 (Off the Board)
An even debut could surprise I will have in my exotics for sure.

Race 6

4 Graycaster 6-1 (4th Place)
This one ships in for SoCal and the Cooper barn has seen Gray fire off 3 straight solid works I think scores at first asking on the Auburn dirt.

6 Freiburg 5-2 (2nd Place)
After 1st outing here no question the favorite and wins at a 25% clip so would be no surprise.

7 Tumac Mountain 10-1 (3rd Place)
SJC a significant jockey change here might let T-M roll let’s see how much different he runs here.

Race 7

1 Bernie 9-2 (4th Place)
OK 2 syllable’s but still a short boys name with Brett and Sherm. More importantly tho Bernie had a sol;id run from just off the pace to finish 2nd in 1st out this year another effort like that may be the key to victory.

2 Dreamcatcher 5-2 (Winner)
Dream will need some speed to run at and it looks like some of the shippers may provide that, a fast opening half could set this one up just fine.

3 Credit’s Good 5-1 (Off the Board)
Speed but can he last other speed signed on but this one seems to hang on longer than the others.

Race 8

9 My Grandpa 3-1 (Scratched)
Gonna give Gramps another try here after touting him as my pick of the day on July 2 he ended up 3rd 9 lengths behind after tiring down the stretch.

5 Unmachable 4-1 (3rd Place)
3 starts and a 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finish betting he will light the board again in 4th career start.

3 Frolic and Detour 9-2 (Off the Board)
Broke maiden in last out after 7 tries maybe it clicks and he repeats would not be a shock for sure.

1 Papa’s Golden Boy I will use to replace My Grandpa. (Winner)

Race 9

3 Ima Happy Cat 5-2 (Scratched)
5-year-old with 222k in earnings with speed….like the Kitty’s chances here.

2 Killarney Lass 4-1 (4th Place)
This little lassy loves to win with 6 pictures in 16 starts. Simply can not keep her out of the pick 3’s, 4’s 5’s and Double for sure.

7 Broome 6-1 (Off the Board)
Last time this one was in action was in May….of 2019. But last seen at Churchill, Keeneland, Fairgrounds and Del Mar has racked up 161k in earnings and finished in the money 14 out of 19 times if Blaine Wright has her right she could be tough to deny.

6 Alittlelesstalk will be substituted for Ima Happy Cat (Winner)

Race 10

4 Pin Up Lady 8-1 (Winner)
Got hung up or something happened at the gate and was declared a non-starter. If Alex Cruz stays on this time I think he gets her to run.

6 Sadie Sue 4-1 (2nd Place)
Juan Guti takes her back after an even effort in 2020 debut at EmD expect improvement and good chance for the win.

7 Sophie’s Dream 5-1 (Off the Board)
I had this one in her first out that she held on to win for her 2nd career victory at 6-1. She has 6 career starts 2 wins, 2 2nd’s and 1 3rd with 2 wins in a row. Not sure we know how good this one could be.

Race 11

9 All About Time 9-5 (Winner)
Not thrilled with a 9-5 shot that’s run 3 times with 2 5th place finishes and a 9th. But not a lot in here and he takes a huge slide in class if not here and now then when?

5 Magic Mahogany 6-1 (3rd Place)
Ran 3rd just missing 2nd in seasonal debut. Cerapio is on board if top pick again fails to fire he may be in position for his first win.

3 Bleu Musket 10-1 (Off the Board)
Bleu’s career debut ended in a 4th place finish but was 20 lengths behind. Still an ok effort splitting the field of 6. Look for improvement in 2nd out.

Larry’s Picks for Thursday, 7/16

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget for example the Superfecta bet Larry made in the 1st race has a 10-cent minimum, he chose to bet $1 minimum for a total cost of $48. the 10-cent minimum would cost $4.80)

1st Race
$1 Pick 4 (3-4-6 with 1-4-7 with 1-2-4 with 1-4-6) $81 Result: 0
50-cent Superfecta (3-4-6 with 3-4-6 with All with All) $36 Result: 0
$25 WPS (6) $75 Result: $35

2nd Race
50-cent Superfecta (1-4-7 with 1-4-7 with All with All) $60 Result: 0
$25 WPS (4) $75 Result: $105

3rd Race
50-cent Superfecta (1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with All with All) $90 Result: 0
$25 WPS (2) $75 Result: $32.50

4th Race
50-cent Superfecta (4-5-6 with 4-5-6 with All with All) $90 Result: $210.70
$25 WPS (4) $75 Result: $70

5th Race
20-cent Pick 7 (3-5-8 with 4-6-7 with 1-2-3 with 3-5-9 with 2-3-7 with 4-6-7 with 3-5-9) $437.40 Result: $0
50-cent Superfecta (3-5-8 with 3-5-8 with All with All) $90 Result: $0
$25 WPS (3) $75 Result: $0

6th Race
$1 Pick 4 (4-6-7 with 1-2-3 with 3-5-9 with 2-3-7) $81 Result: 0
50-cent Superfecta (4-6-7 with 4-6-7 with All with All) $60 Result: 0
$25 WPS (4) $75 Result: 0

7th Race
$1 Pick 5 (1-2-3 with 3-5-9  with 2-3-7 with 4-6-7 with 3-5-9) $121.50 Result: 0
50-cent Superfecta (1-2-3 with 1-2-3 with All with All) $126
$25 WPS (1) $75 Result: 0

8th Race
$1 Pick 4 (1-3-5 with 2-6-7 with 4-6-7 with 3-5-9) $81 Result: $923.20
50-cent Superfecta (1-3-5 with 1-3-5 with All with All) $121.50 Result: 0
$25 WPS (1) $75 Result: $250

9th Race
$1 Pick 3 (2-6-7 with 4-6-7 with 3-5-9) $27 $116.70
50-cent Superfecta (2-6-7 with 2-6-7 with All with All) $60 Result: 0
$25 WPS (6) $75 Result: $242.50

10th Race
50-cent Superfecta (4-6-7 with 4-6-7 with All with All) $121.50 Result: 0
$25 WPS (4) $75 Result: $377.50

11th Race
50-cent Superfecta (3-5-9 with 3-5-9 with All with All) $121.50 Result: 0
$25 WPS (5) $75 Result: $62.50

Total Bets: $2,630.40
Total Cashed:2551.60
Difference: -$78.80

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________

DAY 7

Race 1

2 Gold Supply 3-1 Winner
This one ran 2nd in first out here in Auburn and had 6 lengths on the 3rd place finisher Excessive Belief also in this race. Alex Cruz sticks, not a lot of true spped this one can stick close maybe even be on the lead but should be in good position to finish at the top of the stretch.

1 Dakota Rose 4-1 (Off the Board)
This one has flashed some speed and thinking will need to press on the gas early from the rail. If left unattended may be tough to collar.

5 Rueful’s Night Out 5-2 (Off the Board)
Rue is sent out by Lucarelli and has had a small break last running about a month ago in Frisco. Takes a drop and would be no surprise.

Race 2 

3 Barkley 6-5 (2nd Place)
Barkley is beloved by so many fans we have to take him here no matter what. Javier Matias gets back on board as usual and an 80% effort should get the job done with this former Longacres Mile Champion.

2 Rally Cat 7-2 (3rd Place)
Here I play follow the rider. Juan Gutierrez jumps off Grinder Sparksaglo and a solid 3rd place finish to ride the Blaine Wright trained Rally Cat. Rally Cat’s rider the past 2 races has been Matias and he won both but he is sticking with Barkley. If Barkley fails to fire this one can be right there.

4 Grinder Sparksaglo 3-1 (4th Place)
Gary Wales gets the ride here and should have the lead to the 1/8th pole at least…he may not stop this time.

Race 3

5 Brahms Forest 5-1 (4th Place)
I liked this one first time out but clearly needed that one on opening Day. A nice break and no bounce should be in the works look for a strong performance.

3 Das Bear 5-2 (Off the Board)
D-B will be pushing the the pace and will be a target for my top pick down the lane.

7 Assets Included 3-1 (Winner)
Ships in from GG and been off a few weeks may have needed a brief rest and could be ready to fire a big shot.

Race 4

2 Timber Jenny 6-1 (Off the Board)
I liked this little filly in her opener and am gonna stick with her one more time thinking she needed a go round first.

9 Ximena’s Honor 12-1 (Off the Board)
She beat Jenny and finished 3rd well behind the winner and a few lengths behind Mean Sharon. I like the outside post and maybe she can sit the trip and a little improvement come flying down the lane.

5 Mean Sharon 3-1 (4th Place)
If you can get 3-1 on Sharon take it but I am thinking she will be overbet and will take my chances on a price in here.

Race 5

4 Splittin Image 3-1 (Off the Board)
Solid first effort could show speed or could sit just off. That experience in his first try should set him up to be the one to beat.

3 Tig 6-1 (Winner)
He steps up from maiden claimer to MSW so a big step but with a very good first effort let’s see if he can make the step up.

8 Time n Time Again 9-5 (2nd Place)
Easy to see why this one is 9-5 has already made 46k and at least 10 out of 13 times in the Super comes out for the powerful Cooper barn.

Race 6

5 Linchpins Wake 9-2 (Off thenBoard)
Has the first run under her belt with a very good effort at 40-1 and can be in the front grouping if she gets there first it won’t be at 40-1.

3 Four Score 12-1 (Off the Board)
A friend told me about this one.

7 Forty Knot Current 4-1 (2nd Place)
A first time starter for the Wright barn always dangerous.

Race 7

8 Valid Prince 4-1 (Winner)
Coming off a win from opening day I think Gary Wales is bailing on the wrong horse should have stuck I believe but we will see who is right.

1 Crest Drive 6-1 (Off the Board)
3rd out and has improved look for him to be in the super or better.

4 Mr Bingley 10-1 (3rd Place)
This is the kind of runner that Howard Belvoir and Jennifer Whitaker stuns everyone, don’t be surprised if Mr B stuns.

Race 8

5 Only the High Road 6-1 (4th Place)
My new fav jock Cerapio gonna score here but one drawback is only 2 wins compared to 13 places and 8 shows gonna box my exotics for sure but think maybe win #3 may be today. He also has never run on any other track in his 37 starts.

3 Thorn Legacy 6-1 (3rd Place)
Another one that doesn’t win alot but 39 starts 2 wins, 9 places and 7 shows including a 2nd in first out he could be a Thorn in the side of the others.

7 Winning Bluff 9-2 (Off the Board)
Ran an even 4th on July 2nd a day that was a huge speed bias, no chance on that day a fair track today could be a game changer.

Race 9

5 This Great Nation 7-2 (Off the Board)
Ran a credible 3rd on opening day with Cerapio aboard and now Cerp has this track figured out and should have Nation in position to make a run for the win.

3 Buckley Bay 9-2 (3rd Place)
Been off for 11 months  but had 2 impressive wins last year. Just wondering if he needs this one first. Demand 9-2 or more.

6 Wine at Nine 5-2 (2nd Place)
A local favorite always gets overbet and needed last will that be enough to take him start to finish? Not sold.

Race 10

3 Riggski 7-2 (4th Place)
One of the few with a trip around the Auburn oval and looks like he got tired with a 5th place finish but just 2 lengths behind finishing in a bunch. A little improvement and could be enough to get the job done.

7 Licorice Drop Pops 5-2 (2nd Place)
Comes from Joe Toye’s barn and Joe knows how to have them ready. This one was running at Turf but has had a few months off may be ready to fire first off the bench.

5 True Regards 5-1 (Off the Board)
Another one from the all-time Trainer at Emerald and would be no shocker if he has him ready in first try at EmD.

Larry’s Picks for Wednesday 7/15

(Larry’s bets are with pretend money remember look for the minimum bets that can fit any budget for example the Superfecta bet Larry made in the 1st race has a 10-cent minimum, he chose to bet $1 minimum for a total cost of $48. the 10-cent minimum would cost $4.80)

1st Race
50-cent Pick 4 (1-2-5 with 2-3 with 3-5-7 with All) $81 Result:0
$1 Pick 3 (1-2-5 with 2-3 with 3-5-7) $18 Result: 0
$50 Win (2) $50 Result: $185

2nd Race
$50 Win (2) $50 Result: 0
$10 DD (2-3 with 3-5-7) $60 Result: 0

3rd Race
$50 Win, Place (5) $100 Result: 0
50-cent Superfecta (3-5-7 with 2-3-5-7 with All with All) $90 Result: 754.80

4th Race
$25 Win, Place $50 Show (2) $100 Result: 0
$10 Exacta Box (2-5-9) $60 Result: 0

5th Race
50-cent Pick 4 (2-3-4-8 with 4-5-7 with All with 1-3-5-6) $216 Result: 0
$1 Superfecta (8 with 3-4 with All with All) $30 Result: 0

6th Race
50-cent Pick 5 (3-5-7 with 1-4-8 with 5-7 with 3-4-5 with 3-5-7) $81 Result: 0
$50 WPS (4) $150 Result: $90

7th Race
50-cent Pick 4 (1-8 with 1-3-5-6-7-8 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7) $54 Result: 0

8th Race
$1 Pick 3 (All with 3-5 with 3-5-7) $48 Result: 0
$200 Show (5) $200 Result: 0

9th Race
$10 DD (5 with All)  (All with 3) $160 Result: 0
$20 DD (5-3) $20 Result: 0
$50 WP (5) $100 Result: 0

10th Race
50-cent Superfecta (3-5-7 with 3-5-7 with All with All) $90 Result: 0
$50 WP (3) $100 Result: 0
$5 Trifecta (3 with 5-7 with All) $60 Result: 0

Total Bets: $1,918
Total Cashed:$1,029.80
Difference: -$888.20

www.elisportsnetwork.com

 

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