7/18/16

(Auburn, WA) A day after the Superfecta of Stakes races at Emerald Downs it really was one for the books for the bettors. The day looked like it may belong to the betting favorites and not just mild favorites but odds-on choices. Here are some of the highlights from the tote board that made some folks a lot better off for at least the rest of the summer.

*Bridge Jumper in the Emerald Express

For those who do not know what a bridge jumper is, it is a person with a huge bankroll placing a large bet to show on what they believe is a “sure” thing. Remember horse racing is pari-mutuel, you are not betting against the house like in a casino playing blackjack but rather everyone else at the races making a bet in the same race. Emerald Downs has no interest in the outcome of races from a betting stand-point except in the rare occasion of a bridge jumper. You see the track must pay off a minimum 5% even if they have to cover any shortage in a particular betting pool.

In the Emerald Express “The Chilli Man” was the overwhelming favorite at 2-5 in the win pool and 1-9 in the show pool. The total amount bet to show in this race was $166, 376 of that $142,622 was bet on The Chilli Man. This caused what is known as a negative pool to Emerald Downs and is the only time the track would have to cover the shortage of the pay-off if the Chilli Man finished in the top 3. The Bridge Jumper is banking on the quick 5% return on their investment and with only 5 horses in the field many believe this is easy money. But the fact remains if you bet $100,000 to show your profit is only $5,000.

Now the flip side is if the favorite does not finish in the top 3 you get crazy show pay-offs for the horses that do. So when The Chilli Man pulled up at the top of the stretch and was out of the race the returns were going to be big.

The winner, “So Lucky” was the 2nd favorite at 5-2 and paid $7 to win, $4 to place and normally you would be looking at a $2.60 or $2.80 pay-off for show but in this race, paid as much as the win ticket $7.

The place horse Mixo went off at 11-1 but in only a 5-horse race you would still expect $8-$10 for the place and likely less than $4 for the show. In this race you got the expected $10.60 for the place but $24.00 for the $2 show ticket. And the 3rd place horse, Don’tbeshywillie at 13-1 you’d be happy with $4 but this time you got $22.20.

It didn’t set the record for a show pool which is around $250,000 and was responsible for the track’s record show pay-offs but it was a big pay-off for the show players on this day.

The Angie C Stakes baffles the Superfecta bettors

The 2nd 2-year-old Stakes race was for fillies and mares in the Angie C. It appeared to be a wide open race but the bettors settled on a favorite, Paddy’s Secret making her the 3-5 odds-on choice. No crazy show betting in this one, and had there been there could have been a record show pay-out with 11 horses in this field.

Karula won the race and paid $65.20, 24.20 and $17.00 or $106.40 if you bet the old style “$2 Combo”. 15-1 shot Blazinbeauty ran 2nd and paid off 14.60 and 9.20 and 56-1 shot Camano Comet returned $15.20. Now you may ask why Camano Comet paid less than Karula with her odds quite a bit higher. Well that’s what we call the 1st timer effect, remember the odds posted are for the win pool only. Each separate betting pool has their own odds. What odds really are is what your fair share of the pool is if your ticket is a winner. So for show odds you really need to know which 3 horses finish 1-2-3 before you can figure out the pay-offs and in this case many 1st timers like to bet longshots to show and in this race enough bet more to show on the 56-1 horse than the 31-1 winner.

This race also featured something you rarely see in the 10-cent Superfecta bet and that us no one bet a ticket that had the top 4 horses in perfect order. The numbers of the top 3 in order were 8-5-1 which 13 people had selected correctly. But not one of them had the 4th place finisher and oddly enough 4th place finisher “Let’s Mambo” had the lowest odds of the 4 at 10-1. The 13 tickets who got the 1st 3 correct took home a whopping $3,095.45. Had just one of them hit the “all” button for 4th place they would have stolen the whole pool at more than $39,000! Yes this is a 10-CENT bet!

The 50-cent Trifecta in this race also paid handsomely, $3,456.05. There were 15 winning tickets signing for those winnings. So you have to wonder if someone simply played their favorite numbers or birth dates and for $12.00 boxed 4 horses in a trifecta and figured for only $2.40 more, I’ll box them in a 10-cent Superfecta for a grand total bet of $14.40. This person would have collected $6,551.50!!!

Exacta bettors did well too collecting on a 670-1 shot of the 8-5 combination. But the horizontal bets really didn’t open any eyes with the 50-cent Pick 3 paying only $149.55 and the $1 Daily Double frankly a paltry $111.50 when you consider a 31-1 shot in an 11 horse field was the 2nd half of a double that saw the 2nd favorite to an odds on choice take the opening leg.

Upsets continue in the Boeing

The team of Oak Crest Farms, Trainer David Martinez and Jockey Javier Matias won back-to-back trips to the winner’s circle with big pay-offs in tow each time. Karula was 31-1 and then Guinevere’s Finale at 23-1 in the Boeing Handicap.

So the horizontal bets (daily double and pick 3 plus legs in the all-Stakes Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 7) finally start to pay off. The all Oak Crest Farm Daily Double returned $520 on the $1 bet while the 50-cent pick 3 of So Lucky in the Express to Karula in the Angie C to Guinevere’s Finale in the Boeing paid $713.95. Now if you only liked those 3 horses then the horizontal bets were a huge failure as a 3-race $2 win parlay picking those exact horses returned more than $5,000 while a $2 pick 3 would have been good for $2,800.

The vertical bets, (exacta, trifecta and superfecta) were again huge with G-F at 23-1, 2nd place Morning Coffee at 15-1, 3rd place Chronologic’s Ghost at 21-1 and 4th place finisher Curly Girly 5-1. The 2-1 favorite Chocolatier finished 9th. The 6-11 $1 exacta returned $286.60, the 50-cent trifecta numbers 4-8-6 was good for $2,772.25 with 12 winners and 18 winners cashed in the 10-cent superfecta 6-11-5-3 and got them $1,177.93.

The All-Stakes Pick 4 

Emerald Downs President Phil Ziegler says putting the 4 Stakes races back-to-back and on 1 card was an experiment to see what kind of attraction this format would be for both bettors and fans. The track was packed with crowds nearing what its like on a Longacres Mile Day so that part seems to have worked. We’re not sure how the betting angle worked as the All-Stakes Pick 4 the 5th-8th races attracted a total pool of $17,626 while the final Pick 4 pool, the 7th-10th races was over $20,000.

5 people were thrilled with the All-Stakes Pick-4 that saw their 50-cent ticket return $3,432.35. Yes there were 2 long shots that pushed the high pay-off and made this bet tough to hit but if you analyze it, it was a more than hitable bet if you were willing to invest a little.

The pick 4 is a 50-cent bet so lets look at the 4-races and agree the Angie C and the Boeing were wide open and that’s where you would look for a longshot or at least 8-1 or higher to hit the board. In the opener you could have singled the big favorite, The Chilli Man, but horses running only for the 2nd time makes many nervous so going 2 deep with the top 2 favorites gets you The Chilli Man and So Lucky who won the race at 5-2. Then in the finale, the Mt Rainier 2 horses again stuck out with Stryker Phd and O B Harbor and they went off as 6-5 co-favorites. One was a speed horse and one a closer, the speed horse O B Harbor took the win.

To win this Pick-4 a bet of 4 & 5, with All (1-11), with All (1-12), with 1 & 3 would have cost you $264. Your Pay-off would have been about $2,900 as you would have added to the number of winners. Now if you really liked say O B Harbor and singled him in the Mt Rainier your total bet would have been $132. And if somehow you singled Ok Lucky and O B Harbor your bet of 4, with all, with all, with 1 was $66.

But the better bet would have been the Pick 3 for those who hit the Angie C and Boeing Daily Double. Figuring there may have been some folks who simply bet the Oak Crest Farm angle that paid them a $520 Daily Double could have added the entire field of the Mt Rainier for just $3.50 in a Pick 3 add on bet. The 8-6-1 Pick 3 returned $1,034.50, not bad for an additional $3.50 or the cost of a hot dog.

There you have it a banner day for bettors who like to chase big pay-offs, it was there for the taking. Remember there are 2 parts to betting the horses and the 2nd part seems to be the hardest, picking the one you want to bet and then trying figure out how to best maximize your investment. This is why horse racing is one of the best games in town and for the veteran to the beginner there is a real chance to win a bet with little investment that can can make a difference in your life.

How about this stat for you, 400 tickets were cashed on Sunday that returned more than $280 and not one of the bets were more than $1. Here is what paid:

$1-Exacta paid $670 had 109 winners, $1-Exacta paid $286 with 173 winners

50-cent Trifecta paid $3,456 had 15 winners, 50-cent Trifecta paid $2,772 had 12 winners

10-cent Superfecta paid $3,095 had 12 winners, 10-cent Superfecta paid $1,177 with 18 winners

$1 Daily Double paid $520 with 7 winners

50-cent Pick 3 paid $713 with 5 winners, 50-cent Pick 3 paid $1,034 with 10 winners

50-cent Pick 4 paid $3,432 had 5 winners, 50-cent Pick 4 paid $592 with 34 winners

All of these pay-offs are difference makers whether it helps with a monthly electric bill from the lowest of these pay-outs to a full extra month or 2 of salary to the largest and all for minimal risk. This is the beauty of the game!